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Set x/r vs probe, faces block bet on flushing river

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BunBun00
Joined: 13.09.2023

BU opens K♥:K♦:4♣:5♦:, SB and BB call
9♦:3♥:K♠:A♥:
Flop checks through
Turn SB x, BB probes 50%, BU raises 75%, SB folds, BB calls
T♥:
Bu? Call, raise? Fold?
Calling is the worst option imo because while I ,once in a blue moon, beat some value hands that he rarely might block betting, maybe :Ax::Tx:, or :3x::3x: it's unusual that he would block bet these combos. So the question is between fold or raise? Fold because he has many Fl and some Str8 perhaps.

With :4x::5x: blocking some missed draws so not ideal, but probably don't matter that much. Top set rarely turns into a bluff but i'm wondering if this is one of those cases? Trying to rep the NF with K♥: after flop check back is probably bad.


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Flop I would always cbet. You unblock Q, J, T, 9 and 3 so try to build that pot. Theory wise we would probably check some KKT9 type but I would not mind to cbet all KK as default.

River versus block would be very tempting to pot raise. Depends on opponent though and every option could be good imo.


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BunBun00
Joined: 13.09.2023

Interesting so you don't mind a call on river? Seems like an under bluffed spot and we only beat a bluff?


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

I have surprisingly often seen recreationals doing weird things in these spots where they play set passively on flop/turn and then lead it on board changing rivers. Often scratching my head if opponent was in his mind value betting or bluffing.

You didn't define his block bet sizing but let's say it was 1/3 pot. That means we need to be good only 20% of time to be break even (with rake bit more). There is this common saying in poker "pot odds exist" and in these spots it really matter. Now tough to say how often we could be good but it's good to keep in mind when pot odds get really good.


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