[Closed] Nl200Fr: Aa

Hello,

Yep, seems so. I would likely Check/Fold river, even if he has such an AF, I don't really expect him to bluff there.

Best regards,
Rensu

OMG. I dont think u are tilting.

It is very important to know 3bet%. A low % would indicate an overpair.

55 WTSD? A few hands. But that is a lot! Some credit we must give...

But some reads would be interesting!

I dont fold there that easy!

We can't know whether you were tilting or not. Even if you tilt you'll play some hands the right way.

In this hand i certainly wouldn't fold the river.
There almost no hands including a 4 in his range (so let's set them to 2 combinations to be on the safe side).
Since his WTSD is 17 (55 is hin won at SD) he won't call you down very light.
So he represents 88 basically. Again to be safe let's assume he is calling 77 everytime on the flop.
He now has the two 4x- combinations, three 88 and three 77 in his range once the river hits, a total of 8 combinations.

Even if he plays 99-QQ this way just half the time (so there's room for him to 3bet preflop etc.) that are 4*6/2 = 12 combinations that you beat.
So you already got a really easy call at the river.

Furthermore you just need to be ahead 248/(248+248+179)=~37% of the time to make that call profitable. Since we saw that there are 8 combinations that you beat, you need him to have 0.37*8= 2.96 < 3 combinations of other hands in his range to make this call profitable.
So if he plays TT,JJ,QQ this way only every 12th time each, you could call.

Seems like an easy call now, doesn't it?

Originally posted by Bierbaer
We can't know whether you were tilting or not. Even if you tilt you'll play some hands the right way.

In this hand i certainly wouldn't fold the river.
There almost no hands including a 4 in his range (so let's set them to 2 combinations to be on the safe side).
Since his WTSD is 17 (55 is hin won at SD) he won't call you down very light.
So he represents 88 basically. Again to be safe let's assume he is calling 77 everytime on the flop.
He now has the two 4x- combinations, three 88 and three 77 in his range once the river hits, a total of 8 combinations.

Even if he plays 99-QQ this way just half the time (so there's room for him to 3bet preflop etc.) that are 4*6/2 = 12 combinations that you beat.
So you already got a really easy call at the river.

Furthermore you just need to be ahead 248/(248+248+179)=~37% of the time to make that call profitable. Since we saw that there are 8 combinations that you beat, you need him to have 0.37*8= 2.96 < 3 combinations of other hands in his range to make this call profitable.
So if he plays TT,JJ,QQ this way only every 12th time each, you could call.

Seems like an easy call now, doesn't it?

I would say you need to be a head ~58,17% [248,9/(179+248,9)] to make the Call breakeven. You don't have to calculate the amount you Call into the pot, as far I know.

Originally posted by veriz

Originally posted by Bierbaer
We can't know whether you were tilting or not. Even if you tilt you'll play some hands the right way.

In this hand i certainly wouldn't fold the river.
There almost no hands including a 4 in his range (so let's set them to 2 combinations to be on the safe side).
Since his WTSD is 17 (55 is hin won at SD) he won't call you down very light.
So he represents 88 basically. Again to be safe let's assume he is calling 77 everytime on the flop.
He now has the two 4x- combinations, three 88 and three 77 in his range once the river hits, a total of 8 combinations.

Even if he plays 99-QQ this way just half the time (so there's room for him to 3bet preflop etc.) that are 4*6/2 = 12 combinations that you beat.
So you already got a really easy call at the river.

Furthermore you just need to be ahead 248/(248+248+179)=~37% of the time to make that call profitable. Since we saw that there are 8 combinations that you beat, you need him to have 0.37*8= 2.96 < 3 combinations of other hands in his range to make this call profitable.
So if he plays TT,JJ,QQ this way only every 12th time each, you could call.

Seems like an easy call now, doesn't it?

I would say you need to be a head ~58,17% [248,9/(179+248,9)] to make the Call breakeven. You don't have to calculate the amount you Call into the pot, as far I know.

Erm what??? So you fold when you are, lets say, 51% favorite and there is some dead money in the pot? ♦

like this hand a lot. i may take a shot at this hand and answer it tomorrow (after my final exam) deeply

but for now just a few thoughts.

1) i like villains stats a lot. my fr stats look almost the same atm and it works out rly well (ofc due to pos play). i assume he is one of the better regs on that limit and can hand read a bit (ofc, not a big sample, but at least tendencies of his style)
2) you play the hand 170bb and your hand looks exactly like TT+. is this a good bluff spot on the river for him? no one folds a big fh here, so its not.
3) 99-QQ wont overbet jam the river. maybe vbet 90-150. the question for me is how he plays KK. but i doubt he would overjam the river here.
4) for me its a fold, in my mind he has 77, 88, 4x 90% of the time, 5% KK, 5% random chunk.

btw: i dont like villains turn raise (size) ... but i will comment on that tomorrow. he just got lucky that a river hit where he gets big pay-off vs overpairs.

Originally posted by veriz

Originally posted by Bierbaer
We can't know whether you were tilting or not. Even if you tilt you'll play some hands the right way.

In this hand i certainly wouldn't fold the river.
There almost no hands including a 4 in his range (so let's set them to 2 combinations to be on the safe side).
Since his WTSD is 17 (55 is hin won at SD) he won't call you down very light.
So he represents 88 basically. Again to be safe let's assume he is calling 77 everytime on the flop.
He now has the two 4x- combinations, three 88 and three 77 in his range once the river hits, a total of 8 combinations.

Even if he plays 99-QQ this way just half the time (so there's room for him to 3bet preflop etc.) that are 4*6/2 = 12 combinations that you beat.
So you already got a really easy call at the river.

Furthermore you just need to be ahead 248/(248+248+179)=~37% of the time to make that call profitable. Since we saw that there are 8 combinations that you beat, you need him to have 0.37*8= 2.96 < 3 combinations of other hands in his range to make this call profitable.
So if he plays TT,JJ,QQ this way only every 12th time each, you could call.

Seems like an easy call now, doesn't it?

I would say you need to be a head ~58,17% [248,9/(179+248,9)] to make the Call breakeven. You don't have to calculate the amount you Call into the pot, as far I know.

Actually you do calculate it with the amount you call into the pot, looks like someone have been miscalculating the odds. ♠_rolleyes:

Regarding the hand:

I'd probably c/c turn and river, the board is dry and villain seems aggressive, I think checking to induce bluffs is the best way to extract value here.

As played, river is a tough one IMO, actually I think turn is already a tough one, I don't see villain bluffing too often here nor on the river. So, I think I'd probably bet/fold the turn as played. Definetely folding river though, don't think you're ahead that often.

Originally posted by Faye6891

Originally posted by veriz

Originally posted by Bierbaer
We can't know whether you were tilting or not. Even if you tilt you'll play some hands the right way.

In this hand i certainly wouldn't fold the river.
There almost no hands including a 4 in his range (so let's set them to 2 combinations to be on the safe side).
Since his WTSD is 17 (55 is hin won at SD) he won't call you down very light.
So he represents 88 basically. Again to be safe let's assume he is calling 77 everytime on the flop.
He now has the two 4x- combinations, three 88 and three 77 in his range once the river hits, a total of 8 combinations.

Even if he plays 99-QQ this way just half the time (so there's room for him to 3bet preflop etc.) that are 4*6/2 = 12 combinations that you beat.
So you already got a really easy call at the river.

Furthermore you just need to be ahead 248/(248+248+179)=~37% of the time to make that call profitable. Since we saw that there are 8 combinations that you beat, you need him to have 0.37*8= 2.96 < 3 combinations of other hands in his range to make this call profitable.
So if he plays TT,JJ,QQ this way only every 12th time each, you could call.

Seems like an easy call now, doesn't it?

I would say you need to be a head ~58,17% [248,9/(179+248,9)] to make the Call breakeven. You don't have to calculate the amount you Call into the pot, as far I know.

Actually you do calculate it with the amount you call into the pot, looks like someone have been miscalculating the odds. ♠_rolleyes:

Regarding the hand:

I'd probably c/c turn and river, the board is dry and villain seems aggressive, I think checking to induce bluffs is the best way to extract value here.

As played, river is a tough one IMO, actually I think turn is already a tough one, I don't see villain bluffing too often here nor on the river. So, I think I'd probably bet/fold the turn as played. Definetely folding river though, don't think you're ahead that often.

No, I don't think so. Give me proof that you get with 37% profit. I have some calculations what are showing that ~59 is profitable call.

Nope, it's definitely (bet)/(pot+bet).

If you just think about it 59% can't be right since there is more money in the pot that you need to call, so the amount of times you need to win must be smaller than 50%.

What you calculated is the proportion between the money you need to call and the money that is currently in the pot.

What you actually want to determine is the proportion of the money you will invest compared to the pot at the very end of the hand - your money will be part of this pot.

@veriz: Just test the calculations and you'll see.

I'll get a simple example here:

Let's say there's $75 in the pot and it's $25 to call.

According to your calculations you'd need 25/75 = 33.33% to make this call profitable.

According to the... humm... right calculations ♠_p:, you'd need 25/(75+25) = 25% to make a profitable call.

Let's test them!

Example 1:
You have 33.33% pot equity

33.33% of the time you win $75
66.67% of the time you lose $25

Having a sample size of 10,000 hands:
You win 3,333 hands for a total winning of 3,333 * $75 = $249,975
You lose 6,667 hands for a total loss of 6,667 * $25 = $166,675
So your net profit is $249,975 - $166,675 = $83,300
Averaging $8.33/Hand

Example 2:
You have 25% pot equity

25% of the time you win $75
75% of the time you lose $25

Having a sample size of 100 hands:
You win 25 hands for a total winning of 25 * $75 = $1,875
You lose 75 hands for a total loss of 75 * $25 = $1,875
So your net profit is $1,875 - $1,875 = $0
Averaging $0/Hand

Therefore to break even you need 25% equity and that is (bet)/(pot+bet).

Hope that was helpful! ♠_grin:

Okey, I get it now. I will just write my own calculations what I tried my own, I guess I shouldn't use my own calculations and just use those what should be used.

My own calculations are like that:

Total Pot: 427,9
To Call: 248,9

[248,9/(179+248,9)] = ~58,17%

I made it 100 times:

59 times I call, I lose 14685,1 (59*248,9)
41 times I call, I lose 10204,9 (41*248,9)

Their sum is 24890.

Now I calculate the winning when I 59 times make the Call I can win 25246,1 (59*427,9).

So my winning should be by Calling 59 times = 25246,1-24890 = 356,1.

The problem is that in your calculation you always lose the amount you need to call at the river.
So you expect the $248 to disappear completely, but in fact you will not only win the pot 59 out of 100 times, but you'll get your called amount of $248 back, too

Originally posted by Bierbaer
The problem is that in your calculation you always lose the amount you need to call at the river.
So you expect the $248 to disappear completely, but in fact you will not only win the pot 59 out of 100 times, but you'll get your called amount of $248 back, too

Exactly.

Originally posted by veriz
Total Pot: 427,9
To Call: 248,9

[248,9/(179+248,9)] = ~58,17%

This is wrong as I showed you, I think you get that now.

Originally posted by veriz

59 times I call, I lose 14685,1 (59*248,9)
41 times I call, I lose 10204,9 (41*248,9)

Here's the other mistake Bierbaer mentioned. You're assuming that 100% of the time you call $248.90 and lose that amount, and that's just not true since you still got equity in the pot and you'll get that amount back the times you win the hand.

Originally posted by Faye6891

Originally posted by Bierbaer
The problem is that in your calculation you always lose the amount you need to call at the river.
So you expect the $248 to disappear completely, but in fact you will not only win the pot 59 out of 100 times, but you'll get your called amount of $248 back, too

Exactly.

Originally posted by veriz
Total Pot: 427,9
To Call: 248,9

[248,9/(179+248,9)] = ~58,17%

This is wrong as I showed you, I think you get that now.

Originally posted by veriz

59 times I call, I lose 14685,1 (59*248,9)
41 times I call, I lose 10204,9 (41*248,9)

Here's the other mistake Bierbaer mentioned. You're assuming that 100% of the time you call $248.90 and lose that amount, and that's just not true since you still got equity in the pot and you'll get that amount back the times you win the hand.

Thanks anyway!

No problem!