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[Closed] Nl 50 (9,9) 1 overcard; passive plyr 3bet

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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Known players:
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/RaisePreflop/AF/WTS/ORL/BBvsSteal/W$SD;Hero$9.00:///////;MP2$46.85:22/82 /0 /1.0/42 /0 /-/25 ;[/tg]
0.25/0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9♦, 9♠
Hero raises to $2.00, MP2 calls $2.00, 5 folds.

Flop: ($4.75) 8♥, 4♠, Q♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $3.00, MP2 raises to $6.00, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $13.75

Given aggression factor (which I didn't check at time), ok to fold here?


5 replies

22 hands don't reflects his real AF. bet 2/3 of the pot/fold against this unknown is a standard play.


Tim64 Topic starter
Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Sorry; I should have clarified my post. Obviously correct to c-bet 2/3. However, given the re-raise, it also seems correct to fold as played (also a standard play as you say).

I mentioned AF because villain has seen 18 flops out of 22 hands therefore seems to be very loose; however, with AF of only 1 it seems reasonable to assume that he's played those 18 flops passively. If that's a fair assumption, it makes it less likely that the 3bet is a bluff, I think? Do you think one should never take AF into account with 82% vpip, even with small hand sample?

Thanks


Originally posted by Tim64
Do you think one should never take AF into account with 82% vpip, even with small hand sample?Thanks

You should take the AF into account regardless to his vpip%. all I'm saying it won't be that reliable since the sample is too small.
I would actually take into consideration his fold to c-bet% rather then his AF when I'm thinking on c-betting here.


Why not check his WTS? 42% is quite a lot.

As the overcard is a Q, I'm quite tempted to call his raise. Either that or pushing directly on flop. Villain looks like such a fish.


Gerv
Joined: 07.05.2008

Hi Tim,

Looking at this WTS, he is definitly a calling station that calls you with overcards and all kinds of hands which you are way ahead against.

Additionally, you have to bet like 40-42% of your stack as a C-bet OOP against Fish. Because of that I am leaning towards a direct shove since his F2cbet% will be low but this is just speculating.

As Im OOP i tend to shove more to negate my position.
Best regards,
Gerv


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