PLO100 AQ95ds river lead bluff?

Pretty classic situation, our line is believable but the question is whether opponent is a believer or not.

Strategywise, I think lead with that hand is good. If we had the straight, I would like to lead it as very often opponent just checks back with showdown value hands. And if we lead for value, we should have bluffs in our range too (at least versus unknowns and thinking players). Blockers make natural bluffs, and it's kinda hard to get to this river with blockers+low showdown value often. If we don't bluff this type of hand, we probably won't have many bluffs in our range.

Another thing is that flop is rainbow and very dry (except low straight draw). So there aren't really missed flop draws on the river, which at least should make our lead look stronger. If opponent makes a looser call, make a note/mental note and get the money back with valuebets later.

Solvers' flop check-raise is comparably high facing a flop stab. WIth 2 bdfd's this hand would be a nice XR candidate having great playability within such a line (easy fold against a CBR and nice visibility depending on hitting a straight or flushdraw-redraw ott). Our FE should be significant aswell as it is hard for villain to continue hands like mediocre 2pairs or overpairs and we would be happy to bring those to a fold. It also depends somewhat on how loose players steal in those multiway pots, some just tighten up too much so check-folding is not a mistake by default imo.

On the turn catching up the flushdraw brings additional but merged equity support, since we don't love check-calling weak SDV hands lacking nuttiness while also not having enough value to check-raise this is a great hand to donk. We'd still have the option to fold against the shove with our non-nutted backup and weak SDV while generating FE and setting up a SPR that is more suitable for rivers to get to showdown. Check-calling is a reasonable but imo with the particular hand second-best option here aswell.

On the river without improvement we have to give up. Mid-pair is not enough SDV to bluff-catch in a 3-streets game multiway, we either bluff it (preferably having a or -blocker) with a reshove or just fold. The 9♥: is a potential candidate to check shove within more loose-aggressive dynamics where we'd get sure value from our 2nd nutstraight but without reads I'd not make such highly risky plays and if you'd decide to do so you'd also have to be selective not shoving all your s (1/3 could do it).

PS: A more general advice about check-raising (flop): We have to be careful about turn continuations. If villain bet-calls frequently, with a turn barrel we'd basically try to fold out the same hands we were aiming for otf and usually most regulars funnel it down accordingly on the turn at latest that makes our play work. If villain is overfolding the flop we'd have to just give it up even if we improve to a flushdraw redraw. This can be tricky as it is counterintuitive to give up when your hand improves. CBR (Cbet-Reraise) and Raise-vs-Donk ranges usually contain no bluffs and the lack of appropriate counter aggression and sufficiently loose calling frequencies is what makes XR and turn donk desirable. Otherwise I agree with Kyyberi, most hands that check-raise are candidates to bet, which makes leading the flop an alternative option (20% lead from BB on this dry mid-low texture in a 3way pot).

If opponent makes a looser call, make a note/mental note

Usually with so many lines and players you just forget your "mental notes". Filtering out hands from the database afterwards is somewhat extensive indeed, if having no software or in order to avoid typing notes during the session I recommend using a dictaphone. It allows you to keep performing table actions while taking a note, a certain amount of stress when trying to keep track of others' plays will remain whatsoever:

double-post

At Unibet people can change nicknames as often as they like. My thought on mental note is more general. If opponent makes a hero call on the river, there is higher than normal chance that he will do it again. As we then have info on opponent that tends to open a bit too much and call a bit too loose, we should adjust our default strategy versus him during that session.

I think hand is bit gray area for flop x-r in a way that I would not be surprised to face 3bet from some Qx two pairs or wraps.

Turn lead is indeed interesting option without nfd. I would have folded turn versus bit bigger sizing.

River I expect villain to check with lot of two pairs and sets so I would lean toward leading fair amount of straights. Especially when unblocking those two pairs or sets.

Originally posted by Kyyberi
At Unibet people can change nicknames as often as they like. My thought on mental note is more general. If opponent makes a hero call on the river, there is higher than normal chance that he will do it again. As we then have info on opponent that tends to open a bit too much and call a bit too loose, we should adjust our default strategy versus him during that session.

Yeah at my site they can change nicks too. Many still don't for whatever reasons. Sometimes, when regs have uncommon/significant leaks it's even possible to spot someone you already know. I'd still say, after so many hands played it is hard to keep track. You might want to combine it with player research within your database. I am also trying to take mental notes but it does not work very well for me, just impossible to keep track on so many details. It's a real help having extreme tendencies saved somewhere on a hard disk, like somebody plays 60/35/12 but then goes hardcore nutpeddling postflop. You don't want him to stack you before having that info. I had such a player recently and it cost me 2 stacks to realize it.