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Steal vs. 3 bet preflop (call or fold) equity analysis

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kingdollar
Joined: 13.04.2007

Hi community,

another hand where I ask myself would you push this hand for 27,5BB preflop? I had nearly no hand history for this villian. And I was facing a 3 bet to my steal. I wanted to finish the action with 4 bet all in and thought my hand should be good enough to do it. Counting the equity I need >=0,603. I was thinking with which hand he will call my 4 bet, and I think if he is thinking player with below hand selection.

Maybe also with this range, but I'm still way ahead. Would you call the 3 bet and check the turn, or would you fold here? I think from equity point of view if he isn't a real maniac I can't 4 bet all in. Or I assume my card equity + my fold equity from 4 bet all in is higher as 60,3% which gives a need for a fold equity minimum 27%. Do you think this is realistic? I don't think so...

Even If Villian will call with this range here, I'm still not profitable. And I don't think he will do it.

GG Poker - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 113 BB (VPIP: 14.04, PFR: 9.36, 3Bet Preflop: 2.70, Hands: 180)
MP: 97 BB (VPIP: 31.40, PFR: 10.47, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 90)
Hero (CO): 101 BB
BTN: 194.5 BB (VPIP: 31.87, PFR: 24.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 94)
SB: 27.5 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
BB: 168.5 BB (VPIP: 25.40, PFR: 15.87, 3Bet Preflop: 10.34, Hands: 65)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♦ T♣

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, SB raises to 8.5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 101 BB and is all-in, SB calls 19 BB and is all-in

Flop: (56 BB, 2 players) Q♥ 8♥ 4♦

Turn: (56 BB, 2 players) 2♣

River: (56 BB, 2 players) 6♣

Hero shows A♦ T♣ (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 25%, Flop 15%, Turn 7%)
SB shows K♠ A♠ (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 75%, Flop 85%, Turn 93%)
SB wins 52.5 BB

best regards,
kingdollar


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Against a unknown it's a close spot, but in general I don't think a unknown short stack on NL2 will 3bet wide enough and fold enough to make it a to profitable move. Also ATo isn't to strong. ATs would be a more interesting hand to shove with.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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