Villain had been active on small sample so I assume fairly wide preflop defend. Went for B75, B100, B100 postflop and folded to shove. Absolute bottom of my value but maybe actually too thin considering not ton of mediocre flushes necessarily call flop in first place? Once he shoves its practically always better.
B50 would probably be kinda better on flop imo.
It's kind of hard to see how the hand was going except on the river. Seems like hard to fold with so much money already in the middle.
Also this hand needs still some feedback of our PLO experts.
Cheers,
SDK1987
I open BU and triple barreled for value. Price is obviously great but any semi sane opponent just never has weaker here as they kinda can't assume fe without history.
You need to call 15 to a pot of 200. The chance of him just shoving lower flush for last few bucks is greater than 0%. The question is, how often he has Jhigh flush or random brainfart there? Your assumption is that less than 8% of times, I wouldn't be surprised if it was over that 8%.
If we are willing to bet pot for value on the river, the question is would there be more value with smaller sizing? We target lower flush or hero calls, and with smaller sizing he will call more often with those. Of course it opens the door for a bluff, so we have to decided if we bet-call or bet-fold, especially if our chosen sizing is smaller (as then his c-raise bluffs have more leverage).
I wouldn't pot fold here. If we fold to a raise of 15, where do we draw the line? If he raised 1bb more, we would call for sure. So the threshold is somewhere between 1 and 15. What would Ghaleon estimate, what is the chance for him to shove remaining 15 with Jhigh flush?
Extremely rare that weaker would shove. Would bet it's less than 10%. But yeah I guess we can call as well.
If he had more money behind, the odds would drop dramatically. But as he has just 15 more and he is wondering if he should call or not, might think that "crap it, here's my all!".
