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Bad fold on the turn?

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CZENG
Joined: 21.01.2026

Poker Hand #RC793463013: Omaha Pot Limit ($0.02/$0.05) - 2026/01/31 15:36:19
Table 'RushAndCash165906' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: a56e1d64 ($12.34 in chips)
Seat 2: Hero ($5 in chips)
Seat 3: 77d3fa25 ($16.14 in chips)
Seat 4: 25f6f883 ($5 in chips)
Seat 5: 1574fdca ($5.83 in chips)
Seat 6: d44c06c0 ($10.22 in chips)
Hero: posts small blind $0.02
77d3fa25: posts big blind $0.05
HOLE CARDS
Dealt to a56e1d64
Dealt to Hero [4s Ac Ks Qc]
Dealt to 77d3fa25
Dealt to 25f6f883
Dealt to 1574fdca
Dealt to d44c06c0
25f6f883: folds
1574fdca: raises $0.12 to $0.17
d44c06c0: calls $0.17
a56e1d64: folds
Hero: calls $0.15
77d3fa25: folds
FLOP [3s Js Qh]
Hero: checks
1574fdca: checks
d44c06c0: bets $0.28
Hero: calls $0.28
1574fdca: calls $0.28
TURN [3s Js Qh] [4h]
Hero: checks
1574fdca: checks
d44c06c0: bets $0.7
Hero: calls $0.7
1574fdca: raises $3.5 to $4.2
d44c06c0: calls $3.5
Hero: folds
RIVER [3s Js Qh 4h] [Qd]
1574fdca: checks
d44c06c0: checks
1574fdca: shows [Ts 8s Kh Th] (two pair, Queens and Tens)
d44c06c0: shows [8c Jd As 2s] (two pair, Queens and Jacks)
Hero: shows [4s Ac Ks Qc] (a full house, Queens full of Fours)
1574fdca: shows [Ts 8s Kh Th] (two pair, Queens and Tens)
d44c06c0: shows [8c Jd As 2s] (two pair, Queens and Jacks)
SHOWDOWN
d44c06c0 collected $10.28 from pot
SUMMARY
Total pot $10.5 | Rake $0.15 | Jackpot $0.07 | Bingo $0 | Fortune $0 | Tax $0
Board [3s Js Qh 4h Qd]
Seat 1: a56e1d64 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Hero (small blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 3: 77d3fa25 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: 25f6f883 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: 1574fdca showed [Ts 8s Kh Th] and lost with two pair, Queens and Tens
Seat 6: d44c06c0 showed [8c Jd As 2s] and won ($10.28) with two pair, Queens and Jacks

Hi guys unsure about this spot in game vs 2 more active opponents. Probably a 3bsq preflop which avoids this. But a good exercise for calculation/estimation that I am not good at.

On the turn I need 25% equity to stackoff based on the 3:1 pot odds.

In game I was scared of set and FD domination, although I wasnt so worried about CO making small bets that looked weak.

I gave CO players (AKQ,AKJ,AKT,AQJ,AJT,AT9):AsXs, (KQT,KJT):(ss,hh) and the MP player (AKQ,AKJ,AKT):AsXs, (KQT,KJT):(ss,hh), JJ!(ss,KT)

Strangely if we remove the dry sets we have them both crushed with 42%+, but if we include them we're crushed having 22% depending on how much AJT,AT9, type hands not having the required 25% to stackoff - making it a fold?

Is the range I'm giving to opponents right? Thanks.


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3 replies
CZENG
Joined: 21.01.2026

After thinking about this spot a bit more, I'm starting to think we shouldn't see that many sets that slowplayed except for those that have zero backup.


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

One thing to note is that one of most common leaks from theoretical side is over cbetting oop. That does depend how much in position stabs but anyway. Also if MP do check top two or set there is probably higher chance of him taking x-r than x-c line. So based on flop play I would as default cap his range quite a bit.

CO sizing on turn is also weak as you said so I think we probably can't fold. In fact I would probably x-shove turn myself hitting decent two pair. Sometimes we will run into better but most of time this sizing telegraphs mediocre hand.

PS: Preflop is indeed very reasonable squeeze spot.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

I have moved your hand to our hand discussion forum. There fits it better.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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