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[Closed] SSS squeeze & equity question

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PanDuzePE
Joined: 12.12.2007

Hello,
I just want to make sure that I make correct decision vs 2 oponnents when I play squeeze.

For example :
1/2 NL
UTG raises 6$, MP calls 6$, Hero BB AQs

Hero = 40 $
PFR utg range = 10 %

MP cold call = 6%

And now, when I play I count only equity vs 6% because I know that vs 10% im ahead.

So:

40 + 6 + 40 when MP calls = 86 to win / 40 = about 46% equity I need

AQs vs 6 % range = 41.378% So I fold

Correct or maybe I make terrible mistake ?

Friends tells me that I play wrong because in he`s opinion we need in this case 31%.

But I play like that because I see how to count equity in this movie :

http://pl.pokerstrategy.com/video/3350

(polish sound but is not needed to understand)

In this hand I count from this method :

http://www.yousendit.com/download/Y1RyRFFUb0JBNkdGa1E9PQ

Sorry for maybe stupid question but I want to make sure

Best Regards,
P


4 replies

You didn't include fold equity in your calculation. Also, MP calling 6% doesnt mean top 6%, because he 3bets X% and calls 6%, could be wrong here, cause I dont use any of the advanced stats(DB aint big enough yet)


Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Your friend is right that:

if you can win $86 by only investing $40, you only need ~31% equity.

But remember, you only win $86 when UTG and MP both call, so you have to compare your hand against 6% and 10% together and in that case your equity goes down. You said:

when I play I count only equity vs 6% because I know that vs 10% im ahead.

That's not right. If you go all in with AQ vs AJ you are ahead but you don't have 100% equity because opponent can still get a J - so you still have to count opponent's equity even if you are ahead.

Now, if you think UTG always folds then you only equilate against 6%, but then you only win $46 not $86. I.e. you can't have it both ways.

If you only wine $46 then you need better equity - in this case 46.51% - which is the figure you mention.

So, if you can win more you need less equity. But if you win less, you need more equity. Simple.

edit: also, remember to include FE like whateverdude said.


Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Your friend is right that:

if you can win $86 by only investing $40, you only need ~31% equity.

But remember, you only win $86 when UTG and MP both call, so you have to compare your hand against 6% and 10% together and in that case your equity goes down. You said:

when I play I count only equity vs 6% because I know that vs 10% im ahead.

That's not right. If you go all in with AQ vs AJ you are ahead but you don't have 100% equity because opponent can still get a J - so you still have to count opponent's equity even if you are ahead.

Now, if you think UTG always folds then you only equilate against 6%, but then you only win $46 not $86. I.e. you can't have it both ways.

If you only win $46 then you need better equity - in this case 46.51% - which is the figure you mention.

So, if you can win more you need less equity. But if you win less, you need more equity. Simple.

edit: also, remember to include FE like whateverdude said.


Ishindar
Joined: 31.12.2008

i think once your ahead of their ranges your guaranteed to have the lions share of the equity.