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[Closed] Oesd+Tp

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elladara85
Joined: 16.05.2006

Holdem Manager No-Limit Hold'em, $100.00 (HH Converter by Kreatief & Marple08)

MP3 20/15, cbet 43%, AF 2.6 458hands
The funny thing on this guy is, that his MP open is 24% and his BTN open only 15%...
I think the cc preflop is standard. You can also think of a 3bet, but his fold to 3bet is only 50%. An argument for calling ip is, that he gives up a lot of pots postflop (cbets only 43%) so i can easy take the pot with me.
Now he cbets a flop, which is not the best to cbet-->so i think he got a hand like medium pp oder big PP. What do you think is the best decision on Flop ? Against an overpair i have 48% so i think its an easy raise.
Now he donks the Turn. You just call it to keep hands like 99-KK in the pot ?

CO ($32.80)
BTN ($107.45) ________ (Hero)
SB ($99.00)
BB ($47.05)
MP3 ($135.58)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 5♣, 6♣
MP3 raises to $3.50, 1 folds, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds,

Flop: 3♦, 5♥, 4♣ ( $8.5 )
MP3 bets $7.00, Hero raises to $19.00, MP3 calls $12.00,

Turn: 2♣ ( $46.5 )
MP3 bets $35.00, Hero raises to $84.95, 1 folds,


5 replies

raise is fine on the flop
you have top pair, so you should get value for that hand
actually I like raising more than calling, jsyut because I don´t like calling turn and guessing river
turn is call. no way he is going to b/c there with 99-KK and if he has ace he´d valuebet river anyway and you can s
hoev for value then


TwiceT
Joined: 15.07.2007

Originally posted by Kaitz20
turn is call. no way he is going to b/c there with 99-KK and if he has ace he´d valuebet river anyway and you can s
hoev for value then

you have teh nutz w/ teh semi nut redraw and teh monster nut gs!!!!

he can easily rep Ax on the turn and rep the str8. let him continue his repping on the river and let him hang himself repping the str8 and trying to move u of 2pair/set.

im not thinking about value vs "2nd best hands". u will stack strong hands anyways. but i want his whole stack from his bluff range since he can easily rep Ax on turn and river. call down for max value (well, ship river ofc if he doesnt)


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

Originally posted by elladara85An argument for calling ip is, that he gives up a lot of pots postflop (cbets only 43%) so i can easy take the pot with me.
Now he cbets a flop, which is not the best to cbet-->so i think he got a hand like medium pp oder big PP. What do you think is the best decision on Flop ? Against an overpair i have 48% so i think its an easy raise.

I stoved it a bit because i think with the 43% cbet it's definitely worth thinking about flatting or raising the cbet.
The problem with calling is, that if your assumption is true (he always has an overpair or a set) your call is NOT because your 5 has SD-value, but because it gives you 5 additional outs most of the time.

The problem is that you won't get much value if you hit either 2pair, trips or a straight because in every of these cases the board is extremely scary for an overpair - and even if he has Ax he probably won't stack off because you could easily have a 6.

So i like the raise on the flop because he could be cbetting more than his stat indicates (any hand he bet/folds is free money for us), and if there is even the slightest chance he folds some kind of overpair - great!

At the turn i fully agree with TwiceT.


TwiceT
Joined: 15.07.2007

Originally posted by Bierbaer

Originally posted by elladara85An argument for calling ip is, that he gives up a lot of pots postflop (cbets only 43%) so i can easy take the pot with me.
Now he cbets a flop, which is not the best to cbet-->so i think he got a hand like medium pp oder big PP. What do you think is the best decision on Flop ? Against an overpair i have 48% so i think its an easy raise.

I stoved it a bit because i think with the 43% cbet it's definitely worth thinking about flatting or raising the cbet.
The problem with calling is, that if your assumption is true (he always has an overpair or a set) your call is NOT because your 5 has SD-value, but because it gives you 5 additional outs most of the time.

The problem is that you won't get much value if you hit either 2pair, trips or a straight because in every of these cases the board is extremely scary for an overpair - and even if he has Ax he probably won't stack off because you could easily have a 6.

So i like the raise on the flop because he could be cbetting more than his stat indicates (any hand he bet/folds is free money for us), and if there is even the slightest chance he folds some kind of overpair - great!

_thumbsup:

raising flop also gives him the opportunity to shove strong Ax.


elladara85
Joined: 16.05.2006

yeah, i totally agree with you. I just should have called the Turn. I missed i lot of value there. Just bad...