> Jay's Poker Updates
PartyPoker Account:
I've not been playing much during weekends. But I did steal an hour or two grinding my PS bonus in PartyPoker (PP). My PP account is not heading anywhere as I play SSS. I am still down about 13 BI.
888 Account:
My 888 account did inch up a little since I started playing SSS. I didn't play much though. Playing at 888 to me is frequent but short. I would go in and out of tables more frequently because there aren't many full tables to play, and I am not a fan of playing BSS or long hours. Here's my equity so far. I am aware I am not playing a lot of hands because I am still thinking about the right strategy for me. The red box indicate SSS strategy with a twist.
You obviously might notice the difference between the graphs though both uses SSS. The difference I believed is explained in my previous post.
Short Term Tasks (By 15 October):
[ ] Clearing 888 for PT3 - 30 pts to go
[ ] Clearing Party's PokerStrategy Bonus (90% to go)
[ ] Evaluate best rakeback sites - Cake, FullTilt, PokerStars, Titan
[ ] Learn about BSS
Mid Term Tasks (By 30 November):
[ ] Play BSS and SSS - Re-evaluating strategy
> Thank you note
Thanks for all the B'day wishes! It's never too late to wish someone something. Cheers to justkyle88, Ejeckt, Cpwpoker, Waiboy, Nameless007. Beer on me next time we meet yah?! I am feeling the love... lol
> Jay's thoughts
More about SSS and Six Sigma:
I am quite a fan of SSS to be honest. I did read quite extensively in PS forum about how 'swingy' and 'un-sexy' SSS is. As a Six Sigma black belt, variance is a very important factor to be first understood and tamed. For those who are not familiar with Six Sigma, it's a well known business management practice that serves to improve business using statistical tools. In business, customers hates variance - measurement of consistency. Consistency (variance) in many cases can be more important than performance (x_bar).
Imagine this, let just say on average you are making $15 an hour on 5/10c NLHE. Is that good or bad? In Six Sigma, we just don't look at your average performance (x_bar), we also need to know your consistency (var). If your std dev is too high, like $10, then there will be times you loose like crazy.
So, what's good then? We have to look at both x_bar and var together. In Six Sigma, there is a single measurement called Sigma_level where both index are considered.
While I won't be going too much into the details, I am currently playing poker and decide which index do I want to tackle first? Because my starting capital is relatively small, variance is much more important for me. I invite you to explore more about this animal called variance.
Grumbling About Variance:
Yes yes, bad beats, downswings, tilt play etc. All poker players experienced it. When I first experienced downswings (see my 888 graph above), I stopped playing and start putting my thinking cap on. My downswing is not as dramatic as many and that's not my point. My point is to understand what causes variance and can I possibly control it to its minimum?
What's Variance:
Variance can serve as an indicator of the "spread" of a distribution
Also, let's put a statistical definition on Variance. After all, we cannot talk about something vague.
When I first studied statistics, I hated the formula! (Who wouldn't?). Here's my advice when you study math or stats: The formula is not as important as what it means! So, don't get intimidated!
Look at the var formula. Inside those bracket, there is (x - m). What does it mean? It means the difference between individual result (x) and overall average. That's all, var is measuring ups and downs comparing individual results (wins or losses) to overall average performance. And let's not complicate it further.
Factors that affects Variance in Poker:
To have high Var is to have high value of (x-m). In poker it means every time your equity changes up or down, you incur variance. Whether you are winning or losing or just paying blinds without playing, there's variance. The question is, what's causing BIG Var?
First big factor to me is your Buy-in (BI) size and bet size. If you are playing BSS, obviously there will be big swings especially if you are agro. For those who complains SSS is swingy, try BSS. The reason SSS can be very swingy is when you start playing very agro like stealing blinds with weaker hands etc. SSS in nature is suppose to be low variance because you cannot lose more than 20 BB while in BSS, you can! Also, if you play BSS, you might not be able to double up with good hands if there lots of Short stackers! So you see how much disadvantage there could be playing BSS in cash games.
Second Factor: Structure of poker table. I've discussed this in my previous post comparing 9 seats and 10 seats full ring. The smaller the ring, the more (x-m) is going to change. There's also issues with tables breaking up and people sitting out for long periods of time. All these will accelerate your blind payout incurring var.
Third Factor: Martingale Betting Theory
When I first started trading stocks, futures and forex, I learned martingale strategy. It's like increasing your bet size every time you lose so that you can win back previous losses. It's a dangerous strategy, and there are still people doing this out there. Martingale strategy is dangerous because it takes one bad losing sequence to wipe your whole account out.
There's also an important saying in trading stocks: It's not over until the fat lady sings. Winning is not real winning as long as you are still in the game. Imagine this, you have been winning big for the last 3 years, taking your $50 capital to $185k. The next thing you know, you play big stakes and lost all of it in a series of very bad beats. So did you really win $185k in the first place?
Remember, the more you win, the more you want to play big and play loose. And more importantly, the more you are exposed to BAD BEATS! When the perfect storm hits, it just takes one hand to wipe out your stacks, incurring variance.
Based on my thoughts above, I've taken SSS and gave it a twist making me a poker player people hate to play with: I am difficult to play with and even if you win, you won't win much. And I leave the table very soon right after I win enough, not exposing myself too much on bad beats.
I believed this will not make me an overnight millionaire, but I know I will get there in the long run. I call this strategy Upswing Variance SSS. Hope to share more next time.
