[Closed] 33 dollar DON on ipoker Bubble problem

Looks like stone cold breakeven EV to me, cause your odds of winning the DoN if you fold are pretty much the same as your equity vs his range if you call (70-75%), and I personally always make the move in breakeven spots, cause you can forget about this table(u win=u can sitout ur way to the money) and open up a new one, and since you are a winning player, more tables=more money, so this fact makes the breakeven EV into +EV IMO.

It's like in headsup SNGs, sometimes you get into a spot where you have 60% edge vs your opponent, when you believe you have more than 60% chances to beat him if you fold this hand, but the fact that you will start your next match after this hand makes it more profitable to take the smaller edge and NOT wait for a better spot.

I would push because even though you can wait for the shorty to bust if he doubles up you're in trouble. I think in these spots KK is a very difficult fold.

Most of the time you will be comfortably ahead of a lower pair or Ax. If he has AA or sucks out then so be it but imo this can never be a -EV call unless we are top 4 with double the chips of the shorty.

It's worth mentioning though, you're the winning player here lol I haven't comfortably got away from the $1.10's yet!

Hi guys
Thanks for the help.
I feel that i need to be able to make these decisons with more confidence at the time. In retrospect I think I am happy folding here.

Wurble look at it this way:
vs a range of 22-AA, A2s+, A2o+ he has ~70% chance to win
There are other 2 shorties on the table and 1 big stack, big stack wins 100%, and 2 of the 3 shorties win. So, if Hero HAS EQUAL SKILL with other 2 shorties he has 33% chance to bust IF HE FOLDS. When you take into consideration the fact that Hero has big edge vs one of them, and we don't know about the other(no info given in OP) we can safely assume Hero here has ~70% chance to get into the money if he folds.

SuperSeanE you say you never commit yourself if there is 1 way shorter stack, but the other guy has just like 100 chips less than you, I wouldn't really call it "way shorter"

I would call here. Because the shortie can easily double up or just steal the blinds once and get ahead of you. Also the blind level change can do this to you. I would fold if i was the guy with 1500 chips though.

This is a fold IMO.

I'm guessing your something like a 70:30 favorite over his range. I've used an equity calculator to look at the hand and it says if you fold in this stop you have about $40 equity, if you call and win it climbs to $52 and if you call and loose 0 for bubbleing. Winning 12 to loose 40 means you have to be an 80% fovourite to call in this spot, which means only AA is good enough to call here.

yeah that seems to be the case. I defo call with aa here.
Even though im always passing aa in DONS lol- seems wierd but im making money passing AA when the situation calls for it

Just few minutes ago was at the 4 handed DON bubble had 4k and guy with 3.75k moved on sb into my bb- i quickly passed lol the other two stacks were so much shorter than us both around 0.6k

Call. It's likely you're going to have to face a showdown anyway in this tourney. Maybe against the shorty.
If you have to reads on the big stack, it's usually the case in my experience, when a big stack pushes, they have trash. To get such a big stack they probably are somewhat loose.
Many a time when i've been very short and a big stack pushes, i've called with a wide range, going on the assumption they are pushing like 70%, and i have been correct the majority of the time. Could be a leak. It's only when i'm 1-2bb short when I do this though.
yea..