[Closed] NL 50 A8s resteal

A8s is just slightly loose in this spot, since you are on the BU and it's a CO steal. If the blinds were tight and not too aggressive, then it's pretty alright imo. A few things can make the situation better for your re-steal:

1- Your smaller stack (you risk less money when he calls you).
2 - Tight blinds which are not likely to get aggressive on this spot. Co will be stealing much looser against tight blinds, whereas you can expect him to be raising with a tighter range if the blinds are loose players.

i would resteal here if the blinds were tight and
his fold to cbet is > 50%, just makes it that little bit less risky.

Originally posted by Ishindar
his fold to cbet is > 50%, just makes it that little bit less risky.

This is irrelevant since you MUST shove as a resteal preflop

If you know the dynamics of the hand (Did CO steal alot previous blinds etc.etc.)
it could help a little bit more

I think your resteal is fine given the massive FEQ you have so it is automatically +EV for you

If he calls, you at least 30%+FlushEquity ♦

- Gerv

Thanks guys for the advice...
Ill be sure to double check the aggresiveness of the players behind me before i make a marginal resteal

why must he shove to resteal preflop? a 3 bet is a better option imho, the villan will only call both a preflop 3bet and a push with a better hand considering his stats.

Originally posted by Ishindar
why must he shove to resteal preflop? a 3 bet is a better option imho, the villan will only call both a preflop 3bet and a push with a better hand considering his stats.

WE shove when re-stealing (~20BB and less). He decides to call/fold. So since WE are AI on the flop WE cant make the cbet.. C ♦

How the blinds react is between blinds and CO.

Greetz,

Tampa

i only shove preflop to resteal when it makes good sense. In this particular situation against an opponent with stats like this villan, a 3 bet is a better option imho.
the villan folds 81% to a resteal which means he only calls a 3bet with very very strong hands which are always ahead of A8. in fact A8 is dominated hard by all better aces, so its a really bad hand to be holding if he calls your shove.
i would 3 bet him and fold to a 4bet to save myself 1/2 a stack. if he calls the 3 bet and has a high fold to conti bet u still can take the pot with a conti bet sometimes.
overall tho, if u 3 bet him rather than shove preflop, u can save 1/2 a stack if he holds a better hand. i would go as far as to say that shoving to resteal against a villan like this is a leak.

I agree with Ishindar a lot here. The A8 can be dominated a lot. You must also calculate that around 6-7% of the times the blind will wake up with a monster, which is even more trouble for a hand like A8. You also need to discount rake when called which will decrease your equity. Your smaller stack and position, could also make villain call with a little looser range and if he does it with AT/AJ or 77/99, your equity remain very bad.

After that is also very blinds dependant, because his range can't be that easy to calculate by his stats alone. I believe it could be closer to 60-70% if the blinds are very tight and as little as 14-15% if they are loose. This changes your EV by quite a lot based on the situation.

For me this hand is a fold, unless I have a good samplesize on opponent, blinds and possibly even some other tells and even then it remains a high variance situation.

You simply cannot 3bet/fold as SS especially not with a small stack mathematical wise:

OTB: 100bb Villain
SB: 100bb unknown
BB: You 15bb (i) /20bb (ii):

50NL thus maximum rake %
OTB raises to 2.5bb / 3bb , SB folds (0.5), BB 3bets to 7bb (8bb / 13bb)

There can be 3 things:
OTB shoves (all-in)
OTB calls
OTB folds

OTB shoves:
BEQ is (i) 15bb+2.75bb+0.5bb+7bb*0.95 = 24bb versus your 8bb, meaning you have to get 25% in order to be BE against a range

Even if his callingrange is QQ+,AK, you have 28% so in my opinion it is a leak to 3bet/fold with a 15bb stack. Especially because of the added value you get in case he folds. When he calls, will you then c/f or shove postflop?
If it is the latter; won't you rather want to see five cards immediately? Imagine the ''I got AK and I miss but I am still committed postflop-feeling''

When you have a 20bb stack, your BEQ is 20bb+2.75bb+0.5bb+8bb*0.95 = 29bb versus our 12bb remaining stack giving us a required BEQ of 29%

Now you can fold to a shove when you exactly know his call/shove/4betrange is QQ+,AK+ but ofcourse there are frequencies of bluffing, looser range & incomplete information which changes the equation instantly from a slight -EV situation to a solid +EV situation.

You gain some FE by 3betting small but generating more FE by shoving makes you 1) invulnerable for bluff frequencies & 2) There ain't a call option to see a flop for Villain

As pointed out here 03/05 SSS Adv. Coaching - resteals against small stealraises

In order to incorporate the 3bet/fold move to be called +EV based on dynamics and not on math requires a radical change in your resteal repertoire:
Instead of value restealing (long term EV), one must incorporate a solid postflop skill when 3betting small in case villain calls. Furthermore Hero must incorporate a sense of bluffing frequency thus a small resteal with a pure bluffhand like 7:d2:h

One thing to note is that precise information as in Stats per position (BU/CO/Hijack) instead of an average number is far more accurate. Ofcourse a solid sample size requirement must be met in order to proof its accuracy

- Gerv

i cant argue with your maths gerv and thanks for taking the time to analise

in my experience a preflop 3bet has pretty much the same Fold equity as a SS shove preflop at this particular level. if a SS player calls a 3be, he is pretty much pot comitted.

I would consider 3 betting or shoving preflop with A8 pretty much a bluff that should be folded against strong resistance from a tight player with 81% fold to 3bet!
3 betting gives us more info on the strength of the hand the villan is holding.

i guess maths wise it also works to go all in prefolp here but I feel it just has a better balance to your game if u 3bet instead and maybe has less variance.

personally i make a lot of profit from light 3 betting tags with a steal of >40% a fold to 3 bet of >70% and a fold to cbet of >50.