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[Closed] nl100 sh call push q6s

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nubbe2
Joined: 08.04.2009

Good spot to squeeze?
what about raise size?

I just joined the table but

Utg+1 is reg./nit
21/19 fold to 3bet 73% 4bet 13 4khands

Co reg/tag/fish (see picture)
20/15 3bet 4%, foldto3bet 50% 4bet 6% 15khands

sb reg
21/17 3bet 8% foldto 3bet 70% 234hands squeeze 27%

Utg reg
HERO: do not have high sueeze.

Co just lost a hand and seems like he is on tilt, he is Reg/tag/fish who multi table brake even.
but his 3bet in this spot with his stack should be tt+, aqs+,ako.
so his calling range is 22+, Axs, Ato+, 67s+ kq.

I though for a while and figured that he doesn't have monster here since he plays straight forward.
So i do get nice odds for calling pre.

I put his range : 22+, ATs+, Ajo+ ( or more like 99-22,AQs-ATs,AQo-ATo)

But my question is how can i calculate or does anyone know how to calculate future winning by making a loose play like this and get the hand to showdown.

If i put Co on a loose range its slightly -EV or +EV but how big should i count the fact that the hand goes to SD?

And what do you put CO on for range here?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($109)
Hero ($134)
UTG ($187)
UTG+1 ($104)
CO ($118)
BTN ($74.75)

Dealt to Hero 6♠ Q♠

fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, fold, BTN calls $3.50, SB calls $3, Hero raises to $17, fold, BTN raises to $74.75 (AI), fold, Hero calls $57.75


2 replies
TheLastNail
Joined: 30.05.2008

careless imo, very 1st hand, high probability BU is a fish, who won t fold so much & oop sucks. I much prefer establishing a table image first.


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

Originally posted by nubbe2
But my question is how can i calculate or does anyone know how to calculate future winning by making a loose play like this and get the hand to showdown.

I think this is almost impossible to calculate.
Most of the "implied looseness value" of your opponents comes from your preflop image you will very rarely get to SD with Q6s so i wouldn't count it in.

I think this is an okish spot to squeeze, but i'd rather pass on it because you have absolutely no idea how the tilted opponent is going to react and the squeeze itself shouldn't be that super+EV since UTG+1s range usually isn't that wide given the situation even though he plays 21/19.


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