Challenge
To win first prize in a Tier 3 $75 SnG on Full Tilt Poker.
Background
I've been mulling over what to do with my Full Tilt Points and Iron Man medals for a while now. I have around 12,000 points and when I recommence playing regularly I should earn roughly 200 points a day. I basically have a choice: to spend those points on goods/services from the FT shop; or to reinvest those points as buyins for poker games.
Assumption 1. I am a winning player. That is, I have some undefined 'edge' over a certain portion of players on the poker platform.
Assumption 2. Every $1 spent in the shop is equal to exactly $1.
Assumption 3 (from #1 above). Every $1 reivested in playing poker is equal to $1 + X, where 'X' represents the edge I have over my opponents, up to a given level.
Conclusion A: By reinvesting my FTP in poker games rather than spending them in the shop I achieve greater value for the points and therefore I increase the overall value of the rakeback I receive for playing. Although FTP and Iron Man medals constitute only a small portion of our overall rakeback, we still have a 'duty' to get best value from these extras - as we see fit. It's worth noting that Assumption 1. is crucial. If I were a 'losing' player whose profit came from rakeback alone, I would do better not to reinvest the points/medals in poker games.
Caveat: There is of course a risk that I will spend the FTP/Medals on tournament entries or tokens and fail to cash in any of them (due to luck/variance), in which case the value of the FTP could be viewed as zero. However, as this is just as true with any $ wagered in poker, we can exclude this as a factor so long as we are prepared for the possibilty that we may receive no value for our FTP in the short term. If certainty is what we crave, better spend the points on a pack of cards and a beer tankard! In short, ultimately we must assume that reinvesting FTP in tourney entries should be a '+EV' activity.
Plan
To spend all FTP earned and Iron Man medals received on either tokens or tiered SnG tourney entries, with the aim of ultimately playing a $75 token SnG for a chance to win $310.50.
Step 1.
Obtain $26 Token. This step to be obtained by either: spending Iron Man medals on a token directly or by spending FTP to enter the 600 or 1800 FTP 9 man Tier One SnGs and by 'cashing' in such tournament.
Step 2. Use $26 Tokens to enter Tier Two SnGs and thereby obtain, as a prize, a $75 Token.
Step 3. Use $75 Tokens to enter Tier Three SnGs where winnings can finally... at long last... be received in cold, hard cash. (
)!
Starting FTP Bankroll and Decisions
At today's date I have 12,431 FTP and just 65 Iron Man medals. The FTP points are equivalent to 20 buyins for the 600 FTP SnGs or 6 buyins to the 1800 FTP SnGs. The difference is that there are 3 $26 tokens to be won in the 1800 (for placing 1-3) whereas only the winner of the 600 FTP tournaments receives the sole token up for grabs. (The medals are worth just under half of one $26 token which sell for 140 medals in the Iron Man store).
So here's where I need your help. Should I aim for the cheaper 600 FTP tournaments which I need to win outright? Or should I pay the higher entry fee for an increased chance (presumably at least 3x the likelihood) of 'cashing' by coming 1-3?
I'll be posting progress here, but don't expect anything to happen quickly. The value of 12K FTP is only about $60 in total so not even 1 buyin for the $75 tourneys and of course I cannot expect to win at the first try...
Well, wish me luck and if anyone has thoughts on how I can increase the overall efficiency of this endeavour, or other suggestions for maximising the 'points to dollars' conundrum, let me know!