[Closed] JJ NL100 SH Overpair... NOT! River play?

I think most of the times he has 99-JJ or slowplayed AA KK. AsKs 4bets pre. AsQs maybe AsJs is likely but i think he shoves the turn because he does not have enough implieds to call because u have just half pot left on the river and are betting big on the turn.
So i think 99-JJ KK are checking behind and only better hands are betting.
c/f.

I'm shoving it: he as a high WTSD and his range is massively weighted towards worse hands like 77-TT because he's likely to 4bet QQ+ pre.
He's almost never having an ace (even if he had a backdoorflushdraw at the flop he would still have to call a barrel with it) at the river and he'd not be bet QQ and KK while he's likely raising QQ+ by the turn.

So if you check it should be to c/c, but as i said previously i'd valuebet this myself.

Originally posted by Bierbaer
I'm shoving it: he as a high WTSD and his range is massively weighted towards worse hands like 77-TT because he's likely to 4bet QQ+ pre.
He's almost never having an ace (even if he had a backdoorflushdraw at the flop he would still have to call a barrel with it) at the river and he'd not be bet QQ and KK while he's likely raising QQ+ by the turn.

So if you check it should be to c/c, but as i said previously i'd valuebet this myself.

i am totaly tired now, before going to bed now, but this is a hell of an interesting spot so i write sth now, maybe sth later:

hmm.. i am not so sure about shoving river, there are couple of Aces in his range: suited A2,A3,A4,A5, maybe A6, all Ax of spades.. also: its ridiculosuly hard for him to call river with 6x or even 77-88 sometimes due to no history running as hero mentions, so we dont miss value from that many hands, even if he was a calling station i dont see him calling here with 6x rly.

i also dont think he floats us on 2 streets here with ntg, esp coz of the bigger bet on turn.. so he at least has pair+gutshot the very weakest, or as mentioned some strong draw of spades, which includes A a lot..

our perceived range contains A quite a lot too i guess and his high wts from 300ish hands might suggest hes taking pot control lines more and might not mean he himself is calling all that light.. is not a big samplesize..

i think one should calculate exactly all combos of hands that could make it till the river and estimate fold equities. The potodds are great so it ll be very close i think between all shoving, c/f, c/c .. i actually dont like c/c too much coz of negative freeroll rly and there are rly not many hands he ever turns into a bluff that are worse maybe some 44,55,65 but that s rly not that many..

my gut feeling: c/f>b>c/c but i also think this spot is so close u might actually just take any of the lines without a proper read.. maybe just get to showdown here and shove it yourself coz we wanna get that one at least

btw: c/r turn is a big consideration here, but i also like the bigger bet.

I sometimes bet like 1/5 pot in this spot versus unadaptive players who don't know what I'm doing.
Kind of a blockbet, or a thin value bet, depending how you look at it.

I wouldn't like a push here, because it will rarely scary away better and I don't see 99 or TT (the next best hands) calling very often.

A check/call is possible too, but then again, how likely is he to float the river ? Any hand with showdown equity would check behind and few will try to bluff you off that spot with a hand weaker than JJ.

Thin value bet it is against players who don't see what we might be doing with this bet and players who do see what we're doing here but don't bluffpush weaker hands to this thin bet of ~20-30 $. They just call weaker hands (and something slightly stronger) and will raise any stronger hand like Ax (but I don't see those in his range tbh), FH or straight.

Bet 25/fold

Call me crazy, but it might be the best line imo