[Closed] Nl200 Ak

Hand discussions for No Limit

Last Post by _Anonymous_ 17 years ago

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_Anonymous_

21.11.2009, 15:35 0

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
SB ($374)
BB ($200)
Hero ($31)
UTG+1 ($47.70)
UTG+2 ($209)
MP1 ($33)
CO ($42)
BTN ($55.65)

Dealt to Hero A♣ K♦

Hero raises to $6, fold, fold, fold, CO calls $6, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($15) Q♦ T♣ 9♠

Hero bets $9, CO raises to $36 (AI), Hero calls $16 (AI)

Villain is 32/13, AFq flop 51%, bet vs missed cb 67% IP (9cases), 57% OOP (14 cases), F 2 cb 37%, Raise cb 24% - Sample 1.4k

I think the bet call is somewhat marginal here though I still gotta do it given the small remaing stack. Afterwards I contemplated a ch/r rather than bet/call, since he seems to be quite aggressive. But if he checks behind things could get ugly on the Turn. Thoughts?

3 replies

Gerv

Joined: 07.05.2008

Posts: 11,641

23.11.2009, 22:55 0

Let's see the situation first as the way I see it with his shoving range:

Board: Q:d T:c 9:s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.246% 22.73% 03.52% 34660403 5366648.50 { A:cK:d }
Hand 1: 73.754% 70.24% 03.52% 107114892 5366662.50 { 99+, AJs+, KJs+, Q9s+, J8s+, T9s, AJo+, KJo+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

Ofcourse J8s is quite extreme as is J9/Q9 but given he's 31/12, I think this is a realistic shoving range

You need 25.8% (rake is substracted $3) but I do think 0.4% equity advantage is like hmpf.

If you check, I think c/f is better than c/RAI since 1) He will only bet with made hands hence reducing your FEQ. 2) Your c/RAI gives him even the odds to call profitably with a 6 outer (he's getting 3.1:1)

If he checks back Flop, then I can safely assume he has a worser hand than u so u bet the Turn.

Personally I don't like QT9r as a cBet/call board so I rather check Flop and see what he does.

I leave it open for a second opinion

Hope it helps
- Gerv

Twitter (eSports/MTG): @Gerv055

_Anonymous_

25.11.2009, 08:38 0

its very close here, with b/c you can maybe get him to fold 22-77, but with c/r you can maybe induce some bluffs from small suited connector. Anyway there is no way i fold ak here with remaining stacksizes.

_Anonymous_

26.11.2009, 01:19 0

Thanks a lot, guys!