130k Hands, 2.000$ Behind EV (NL 25/50)

_Anonymous_

23.11.2009, 14:25 0

At first I thought it might be variance, but I have later realized that every single freaking time I have my money in the middle with over 80%, I lose. Every time without fail, I get sucked out on the turn or river for massive amounts.

Now, this is pretty significant as I only play NL25, NL50 and a couple NL100. 2.000$ behind EV over 130k hands is a pretty ridiculous amount. Does anyone have any matching results or am I really the unluckiest person alive?

I've always thought lucky people have been a load of bullshit, but it seems that some people just win no matter where they put their money in. Opinions?

I'd post my graphs, but can't get filefront working so..

9 replies

caltabiano

Joined: 09.03.2007

Posts: 1,950

23.11.2009, 14:31 0

320k hands, $3.5k under EV FTW! :evil:

SoyCD

Joined: 20.02.2008

Posts: 6,265

23.11.2009, 14:34 0

Its mixed € and $ - with the really bad results being in €

So essentially also 2k$ under EV - only 30k hands though

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thebigheizung85

Joined: 12.08.2006

Posts: 178

23.11.2009, 14:40 0

i am sorry i actually don't even get how the All-in EV is calculated but how can it be that everyone is running below All-in EV... are there any players here who run above that line? would be interesting to see that (at least once)

bernie0303

Joined: 30.09.2008

Posts: 3,474

23.11.2009, 14:41 0

Original von SPlayer18

german highroller.
@mods: he postet his graph, so i think its ok to copy it. if not, just delete it.

€ @ heizung:

The Game is on ... Again (immernochmicros)

Dippy19

Joined: 04.12.2007

Posts: 1,349

23.11.2009, 15:23 0

Originally posted by thebigheizung85
i am sorry i actually don't even get how the All-in EV is calculated but how can it be that everyone is running below All-in EV... are there any players here who run above that line? would be interesting to see that (at least once)

I suck, but I'm a luckbox :f_biggrin:

Cool browser games inside -> PLAY ME! :f_cool:

_Anonymous_ Topic starter

04.12.2009, 23:08 0

Let's say you got all in with AA vs 10 10

Your chance of winning is 80%, and the pot includes 10$ from each player, + 0.25 and 0.50 in the blinds.

Your EV will therefore be 80% of 20.75$ (Minus rake but screw that for now)

The average result would be 16.6$, meaning you earn 6.6$.

Should you lose this hand however, you will be earning -10$, leaving you 16.6$ behind EV.

Should you win it you will be running 4.15$ above EV.

_Anonymous_ Topic starter

04.12.2009, 23:10 0

Some software like for example poker tracker however don't track EV for all streets, so lets say you raise it up with aces to 2$, and a guy with Q3 suited calls leaving 0.10 cents behind and flops a flush, poker tracker will interpret this as EV = close to zero, rather than taking the preflop odds of winning for the 2$ and then close to 0% on the remaining 10 cents. So take caution when reading these EV graphs.