[Closed] Odds&outs for advanced players - sample question

Hi Berkstajger,

weird hand. I thin I would never think about a backdoorstraightdraw when I have a gutshot.

Well let's exchange the 4 with a 2 :diamond:. Now you only have the 0-gap BDSD.
A 5 or 9 would now give you an OESD. A T or 4 a gutshot.
All these cards that give you a better draw are combined to the 1,5 mentioned outs.

Now as a 5 won't give us any draw as it already completes our gutshot we have to reduce the 1,5 outs. Here it was removed by 0,5.

Now that I think about it I see that a 4 won't give us a gutshot anymore as we already have that. I think it should be mentioned there as well.

Ah, I understand now. I didn't even see the lower BDSD because of the gutshot. With a gutshot those outs overlap and it's clear that some part of BDSD has to be reduced, but on what basis exactly 0.5 or (1/3) of out is removed is a bit beyond my understanging at the moment.

isnt this just part of the build up, explaining why you can call with 7:1 odds with your gutshot rather than the basic ~11:1 you would need with our 4 outs?

The fact that whenever you have a gutshot you always have a backdoor straight draw (except with some broadway gutshots) which are not taken into account if you just take you 4 direct gutshot outs. Add this to implieds and you get you 7:1 on a rainbow board and 9:1 on a 2 flush board (I think!)

Now that is a good point. I never thought about that before.
But it's not always 1 out worth. With 75 you have less backdoorouts as a 9 only gives you a gutshot and no cards ever gives you an OESD.

That is an interesting point about how, although you only get 4 outs with a gutshot, you can call with less than the required odds in certain situations. Being that this is a heads-up hand, it may be one of them.

I think the BDSD wouldn't be considered here, though I could be wrong. But 1.5 outs for a BDSD would include not only the T and 9, but the 5 and 4 as well. The 4 on the board already and you can't include the 5 because it is already an out from the gutshot, leaving only 1/2 of the BDSD as outs. So it seems that the BDSD would be reduced by half to .75.

Then, the T and 9 also give a straight to JT, which is a likely hand for almost any opponent. Also, if only one leftover BDSD out hits, it could give 2nd pair to the opponent and in a heads up situation, many players will at least call down on non-scary boards when it hits, especially with a dry flop like this. So in essence, the BDSD outs could also help your opponent beat you and can therefore be discounted, leaving you with 4 gutshot outs.

But the necessity of lesser odds to call with a gutshot (from more advanced concepts) may tie in somehow, but that is my thought process. If it is flawed, hopefully someone will correct it because this is an interesting question.

lke you thought. Maybe that example has to be redone or at least reduced by the outs we have.