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[Closed] 23.5K GTD rebuy JJ early

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bah22
Joined: 28.01.2008

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $100(BB) Full Tilt
SB ($5,390)
BB ($11,050)
UTG ($4,520)
Hero ($10,320)
UTG+2 ($6,215)
MP1 ($7,760)
MP2 ($9,660)
CO ($1,420)
BTN ($11,885)

Dealt to Hero J♥ J♦

fold, Hero raises to $300, fold, fold, MP2 raises to $855, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $555

FLOP ($1,860) 9♦ 8♣ 3♣

Hero checks, MP2 bets $1,245, Hero calls $1,245

TURN ($4,350) 9♦ 8♣ 3♣ 6♠

Hero checks, MP2 checks

RIVER ($4,350) 9♦ 8♣ 3♣ 6♠ 7♥

Hero checks, MP2 bets $7,560 (AI), Hero folds

MP2 wins $4,350

The villain is very experienced FTOPs winner. I have played with him for some time before(last night on the same MTT). I had 22/18/38/81 after 100 hands but the statistics are not that accurate cause he started to ship and reship 10min before break.
This hand was right after the break and we were very deep. He 3bet and i am not sure how many trash hands he 3bets before antes. In other hand i raise UTG so he must give me a tighter range. He 3bets all his value hands here+small % of bluffs. I give him this range preflop(might be wrong):
Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 61.675 % 61.160 % 1.031 % 37.810 % JhJd
Player 2: 38.325 % 37.810 % 1.031 % 61.160 % 77+, ATs+, KQs, T9s, 98s, ATo+, KQo

Preflop i wasn't sure what to do...I could 4bet/calls a shove which is high variance imo or 4bet/fold which is kind of weak vs him! I think call is the best option with these stacks. On the flop i played it like WA/WB and i was going to see what the turn bring. After he checked on the turn i was sure he doesn't have big pair(QQ+) otherwise he would protect it. My plan was to call anybet on the river but the thing is...if he did have a total bluff hand he would 2nd barrel it and after he checked it means he has some kind of SD value. When i think it now river card is pretty ugly one(maybe only another club would be uglier). Anyway he knows my game in some way so he might try to level me up so it looks like a bluff. What do you think? What is the best line? Maybe bet/fold on the river? Any comments!


6 replies
nowyouseeme
Joined: 02.11.2007

Im check raising him on the flop. Like you say, he is experienced and good, you need to know where you are and you need to know fast.


TheRebuz
Joined: 12.10.2008

JJ r worse pocket imo in 3 bet pot oop
i c/c flop
donk bet/fold turn


i c/r the flop to see where i stand.
if he comes over the top on that flop i fold (there is only TT that i do beat, all other hands he got is a set, a bigger overpair or AQ/AK in clubs)
if he just calls my c/r im sure he got me beat too, because AKs would shove, AKo cant call, QQ can call or raise, KK and AA can call or raise, 77 will fold and so on.
the only hands i beat with this c/r call combination is maybe ATs or TT.
so if he calls my c/r on the flop i go for c/f on the turn which really sucks, but the propabilities that i am beat here are too big to risk all of my healthy stack here.
as plyed i think its ok to check the turn again (wouldnt make sense to bet though.. i mean you raise/called him and c/c the flop which hand would donk the turn ??? no real strong hand for sure)
on the river some more of his hands have us beat now
TT has us beat now, 77 has us beat now ATs has us beat now...
so check and then decide how big he bets. with this big bet i fold every day.


alejandrosh
Joined: 02.07.2008

if we check raise and fold to any action we are turning our hand into a bluff. seems a bad move since it is a rebuy. and he is an ftops winner so he is probably going to (correctly) gamble more in this spot. isn't it better to check/call and reevaluate rather than turning our overpair into a bluff?


wel this is one of those spots where i dont feel confident with JJ
the reason why i want to c/r the flop is that i dont want to bust all of my stack OOP wiuth this hand.
lets see if we c/c flop
we c/c turn
and then what on the river ?
c/c again if a blank hits ?

i mean yea this is a good option to c/c flop, c/c turn , c/c river depending on his betsize. but i dont really like that play beeing OOP.
and i mean this is one of the best flops we will see with JJ, so a c/r isnt a pure bluff here but something like protection/value too.

i dont really like the c/c line because of those reasons:
1. A or K hits the turn we check he bets we have to fold
2. Q hits the turn we check he bets we have to call most of the time
3. a blank hits we check he bets we call (still we dont know nothing yet)

lets suppose 2 or 3 happens
1. river is A or K we check he bets we fold
2. river is another Q we check he bets we should call if the odds are alright
3. river is a blank we check he bets we should call if the odds are alright

so we play totally in the dark, c/c all the way down in the hope he has AK or TT

we cant get value, we dont know nothing and if he bets correctly with his strong hands we are kinda trapped or make a tough fold on turn/river

if we c/r the flop instead what will happen ?
1. he will fold all his bluffs (not too good)
2. he might fold AK or make a bad call (this is ok for us)
3. he might reraise us and we know we only beat TT and fold
3. he might call us which means most of the time he got us beat and we can cool down because TT again is the only hand we beat (maybe AK with one club but that hand should not call)

so i think both plays are reasonable, but i dont like the approach to c/c flop turn and maybe river with a hand that can only beat a VERY FEW hands.

but i got what you mean...
its a tough spot :(


bah22
Joined: 28.01.2008

Interesting discussion...
Here is the thing about the hand tho. What do you think his check behind is on the turn?
When he checks behind there i am positive he doesn't have QQ+ or set because he would like to protect them on this drawy board. So his range on the turn is:
TT,77, Tx, AcQc or similar. He checks behind cause 6 probably gives him a little bit more outs so he doesn't want to be c/r on the turn if i have set and slowplay it. And even it is early i believe he is capable of 3bet bluffing with hand like QT,T9s and etc. So as i said i exclude his top hands from his range(QQ+) and he feels like if he draws for free on the turn and might try to make big bet on the river if complete his draw. Only draw that didn't get there is FD(the obv one). Before pushing he thought for a while what to do and my thinking was "OK i have to call a bet on the river". I was probably calling a pot bet...

I understand what grummeler said and i agree in most parts. In retrospect c/r on the flop would define where i stand and probably it could make my decisions easier later streets.
How big your c/r would be? 3K?
Another thought...wouldn't it better to make good sized 4bet/fold preflop? Even that he is a good player and capable of making 5bet shove with bluffs, it will be very hard cause it is relatively early with no antes, so if a make something like 3 x his 3bet(2.4K) it might be better...