[Closed] 3-way 4b pot overpair

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Last Post by Bierbaer 17 years ago

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caltabiano

Joined: 09.03.2007

Posts: 1,950

20.12.2009, 23:29 0

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($143)
BB ($100)
Hero ($245)
BTN ($116)

Dealt to Hero Q♣ Q♠

Hero raises to $3, BTN calls $3, fold, BB raises to $13, Hero raises to $28, BTN calls $25, BB calls $15

FLOP ($84.50) 7♥ 9♥ J♣

BB checks, Hero bets $84.50, BTN raises to $88.35 (AI), BB folds, Hero calls $3.85

TURN ($261) 7♥ 9♥ J♣ 2♣

RIVER ($261) 7♥ 9♥ J♣ 2♣ T♠

I obviously was thinking WTF?! on the flop. Both villains are TAGs. The squeezer has 6% sq over 537 hands and BU is a 19/16 guy.

I guess KK+ should be a pretty consdierate part of these guys range. The rest should be 99 - JJ and the occasional AQ, which is fairly unlikely. So, should I be c/f this spot?

1 reply

Bierbaer

Joined: 27.05.2005

Posts: 4,656

21.12.2009, 22:45 0

I stoved a bit and discussed this hand with a friend: c/f actually seems like the best play ;(.
Vs both of them:
Board: Jc 9h 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.365% 43.20% 01.17% 1500186 40579.50 { JJ+, 99, 77, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, KhQh, JTs }
Hand 1: 11.270% 10.72% 00.55% 372270 19137.00 { QQ }
Hand 2: 44.365% 43.20% 01.17% 1500186 40579.50 { JJ+, 99, 77, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, KhQh, JTs }

You're crushed.

But even vs only one of them you're in pretty bad shape:

Board: Jc 9h 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.067% 75.35% 01.72% 125316 2862.00 { JJ+, 99, 77, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, KhQh, JTs }
Hand 1: 22.933% 21.21% 01.72% 35280 2862.00 { QQ }

And your foldequity will be pretty low beacause at least one of them will have a hand most of the time: TT is probably in both ranges, but 88 and 77-22 are only in the range of the overcaller.
You can calculate your foldequity, but i predit it will be too low to profitably shove ;).

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