I've watched the most recent Jonathan Little video and in it he made a comment about the future of poker. Basically, he expects something similar to what happened in the US to happen all over the world. But I'm not too sure I agree with this view. I believe that most people in the US gave up on poker because it was pretty much made illegal for them to play online poker. He went on to briefly describe brick and mortar games but I feel that online illegality played a crucial role in why there aren't as many fish in the US games anymore.
While the games that run overseas are comparably larger to those that run in Europe (at least looking at from my local point of view) and therefore need more money to buy in. Thinking about it, it's unlikely that a player will get a lot of play time in a brick and mortar game if he uses a bankroll of 2000$. However if a player can use that money on the internet games his options become considerably bigger. I also believe, that many people enjoy building castles out of pennies and most of the fish that we do encounter at online poker games come from lower limits because they usually last longer due to slightly more experience/bankroll they have accumulated.
While I agree the future of online poker lies with other games and not only Texas Hold'em I believe that online poker would have a far brighter future if it was not outlawed in the US (duuuhhhhh). But here are the points I'd like to see discussed:
-would there be more fish and less skilled players in NL HE games, if online poker was available to US players?
-would brick and mortar games still be as soft as they used to be a few years back?
-would online poker be better off if it had a free and open market all over the world (let's disregard the need for monitoring and regulation to simplify)
-will poker, as a game, ultimately become unprofitable for an average player who spends an average time playing poker on average limits? or will the influx of new players cope with the demand for fish(iness)?
Personally, I believe we will see the US market open again and once the Asian markets become more accessible/serviced there should be a second and even third "spring" for poker (if not more due to various other factors like economy shifts, etc.). For me though it all rests on the ingenuity and determination of the online poker providers. Kind of like it depends on each player if they are willing to learn and improve to progress from being shark-feed to winning players.