[Closed] midpair+draw

Hi,

I actually like your line and your river bet sizing.
It screams for value, that you want to have a call.
He'll have a hard time to call even with KQ because J8 got there and you can represent hands like 87, 86, T9, T8 quite easily.

Let's see what the judges think.

Best regards,
Anin

Originally posted by AninIII
Hi,

I actually like your line and your river bet sizing.
It screams for value, that you want to have a call.
He'll have a hard time to call even with KQ because J8 got there and you can represent hands like 87, 86, T9, T8 quite easily.

Let's see what the judges think.

Best regards,
Anin

Your line of thought is reasonable, but this is a theoretical approach many players take.
You're absolutely right, the bet screams for value - but think about how often you were sitting in this spot with AT and said to yourself "this bet looks like he wants to get value - but on the other hand i get 3:1, i only have to be ahead 20% of the time to make the call profitable".

And you end up calling.

Although the concept of betting big to "make it look more scary" is bad in general, on the river it's usually a good way to go (if the opponents range is wide and he's folding a lot of medium strength hands).

So i'd make it really big. I think this is a spot where an overbet makes a lot of sense. A bet of $38 is ok, but if you make an awesome bet of $52 i'm pretty sure he's going to fold exactly 100% of the time.

Exception: QJ.
If he shows up with QJ it will be an extremely rare occasion because he usually bets it on the turn and if he checks it he will be excited to be able to check/raise.

Edit: Btw i'd make it a bit bigger on the turn, $13 seems better. You don't mind if he calls because you can get him off of hands on the river and you still have 12 outs.

Thanks, very wise reply.