SSS Recommendations for JJ..?

altruist

Joined: 29.05.2007

29.08.2007, 15:47 0

Example 5:

Your cards
J :club:J
Your position
Early position
Situation
You play NL10 and your stack is $1.90. One player in front of you called the big blind. You raise to $0.50 according to the SHC. One player behind you raises to $1.00. After that another player moves all-in with $5.50. The player in front of you folds his hand and you have to decide what to do.

This is not the best situation because with a pair of jacks you often face better hands or you have only a small advantage over your opponents. Nevertheless it is profitable in the long-run if you go all-in.

----

How is this profitable in the long run? I find most players who push against two players who have pushed usually have QQ or better. A few don't, but most do. I assume as I move up the limits, the less likely I'll have a hand where JJ isn't completely dominated.

Against QQ/KK/AA, I have a slightly under 1/5 chance of winning.
Against a smaller pocket pair, he/she has a slightly under 1/5 chance of winning.

But assuming I'm against QQ/KK/AA more often than I'm against a lower pocket, in the long run this looks unprofitable.

Against AK it's basically a coin flip. I have the slight odds advantage, but not where close to the advantage of QQ/KK/AA against JJ.

In my opinion there are times where 'pot odds' just isn't right. You'll come across players who bluff far less often then not. If I'm not mistaken, pot equity is only accurate if everyone calls down to the river despite their actual holdings. It does not compensate for 'intelligent opponents.'

3 replies

Puschkin81

Joined: 14.04.2006

Posts: 4,523

30.08.2007, 17:13 0

Hi altruist!

The following math has to be made to calculate whether this call is +EV or -EV:
Equity*Pot - (1 - Equity)*rest of your stack = 0
Equity*4.45 - (1 - Equity)*1.40 = 0
Equity = 0.239
-> That means we need 23.9% equity to make this call break even.

The range you gave your opponents was a bit too tight. If we assume that the first raiser has a range of JJ+, AK and the second raiser of QQ+, AK we have an equity of 25% which means that this call is +EV.

But that's not the end of the story. The two opponents go on with their play and it's possible that one of them folds. In this case the equity changes and we get more equity. If we assume that the second raiser folds, our equity goes up to 36%.

Hope this explanation helps.

Good luck at the tables!
Puschkin81

altruist

Joined: 29.05.2007

Posts: 121

03.09.2007, 19:08 0

Originally posted by Puschkin81
Hi altruist!

The following math has to be made to calculate whether this call is +EV or -EV:
Equity*Pot - (1 - Equity)*rest of your stack = 0
Equity*4.45 - (1 - Equity)*1.40 = 0
Equity = 0.239
-> That means we need 23.9% equity to make this call break even.

The range you gave your opponents was a bit too tight. If we assume that the first raiser has a range of JJ+, AK and the second raiser of QQ+, AK we have an equity of 25% which means that this call is +EV.

But that's not the end of the story. The two opponents go on with their play and it's possible that one of them folds. In this case the equity changes and we get more equity. If we assume that the second raiser folds, our equity goes up to 36%.

Hope this explanation helps.

Good luck at the tables!
Puschkin81

I ran some simulations, if you remove AK from one of the opponents (as it's likely only one of them will be holding AK, the other JJ or better) starting ranges, equity drops to roughly 16.6%. I'd imagine this is more likely in higher limits (NL25+)

_Anonymous_

03.09.2007, 19:32 0

Hardly, shoving AK preflop is a semi-bluff that you'll see more of at higher limits. (Equity calculators do count card combinations correctly by the way so we don't need to remove it from one player's range for that reason.)

It's certainly tempting to look for a reason to fold JJ, but it's just not an option there for a short stack. The odds are good against an unknown, for whom we certainly have to include AK in his range and even the possibility of hands we're actually ahead of. If we genuinely know that this is big pairs only, the odds aren't good enough any more.

I'm not sure where $4.45 is coming from though, the pot's (er, approximately, not knowing if either of the two players behind you are the blinds) $5 before rake if the original reraiser folds and 90 cents larger otherwise. Unfortunately there's also no consideration of possible postflop folding as the second reraiser is all in.

[Closed] SSS Recommendations for JJ..?