[Closed] 100NL SH A2s River overbet ?

Imo he bets TT+ OOP most of the time, his 3bet% is pretty high in the BB.
The samplesize is small but he 3bet 4 times out of 19.

So in my opinion the hands we want to call are mostly small pocket pairs - if he has Jx or a flush there's a high chance he check/raises anyway, so I'd probably just bet something like $12, maybe even only $9.
It will make it very likely that he tries to either call with a small pocket or he starts a move because he thinks we blockbet.
Also if he has Jx or a flush to him it will look like he doesn't get paid off with his monster, so he is more likely to raise.

hmm. I was thinking of around $30 here. I don't think he puts us on a flush very often here so I expect him to call with most of the hands he called the turn with. If he has Jx, he's almost never folding, imo.

if we bet $12, and villain doesn't have a hand he is willing to raise with (i.e. all the small pps you mentioned) then don't we have to get called nearly 3 times as often compared with when we bet around pot (to make the same money)?

I'm not sure if that's the case. Pockets will have a job calling after we triple barrelled on a paired board, wouldn't they? especially since the fact that they called on the flop and turn implies they have a reasonable hand (in which case we cannot really be bluff betting the river when we bet so small, since we must expect to get called).

Originally posted by Tim64
if we bet $12, and villain doesn't have a hand he is willing to raise with (i.e. all the small pps you mentioned) then don't we have to get called nearly 3 times as often compared with when we bet around pot (to make the same money)?

Yep, that's right. Obviously the play is based on the assumptions you make.
In my opinion he is extremely likely to fold any pocket pair if we bet big again whereas he calls a small bet at least some amount of the time.
That is my default assumption, it could be wrong.

Of course if you're playing against a player who you think is talking himself into calling pocket pairs to a big bet you should by all means bet big.

I know that this was not really a satisfying answer :(.

No, that's fine - just wanted to check the logic. It's all a bit of a guessing game without strong reads, after all...