Hello,
I have thought about a specific line, which I want to discuss about. First I am no newbie, I'm just actually not tracked by Pokerstrategy. Second, maybe this is already a standard line, if so good, else please tell me what you think.
Be the exact following situation given:
Me sitting in the Big Blind. Exactly one limp from middle-position or better. Small Blind completes.
My line now is: Bet any two and continue bet on the flop no matter what. For the following mathematical reason (it's a pure mathematical line)(BB=Big Blind, not Big Bet):
Let's assume the following percentages (I think they should match normal play, I give 2 different values, which both have +EV I think):
No call: 20%/20%
One call:40%/60%
Both call:60%/40%
That makes a to win pot of(not taking to account the one/two bets you made):
0.2 x 3BB + 0.4 x 4BB + 0.6 x 5BB = 5.2BB
or in second case
0.2 x 3BB + 0.6 x 4BB + 0.4 x 5BB = 5BB
=> 5.1BB in average
Investement on average:
0.2 x 1BB + 0.8 x 2BB = 1.8BB
so its 1.8BB/ 5.1BB = 6/17
Taking into account, that you sometimes hit something good or really have good cards were you actually win a bigger pot we may round to
6/18 = 1/3
So this line should be profitable if it only works slightly more than in 1 out of 3 situations. In exactly 1 ouf of 3 it would be +/- 0
What do you think? Is there any misscalculation or is this a good (maybe new) standard line. I read about check/donkbet, but I think this might be a better line assuming my calculations and assumings are near to the reality.
Not really important, but my personal experience on low limits seems to make the line profitable, but I do not have enough sample size on this particular line.
Addition: I think if a limper is in UTG position he to often has a good pocket pair, so this line won't work often enough (also discussable).
Greets,
Sebastian
