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[Closed] Nl200 QJo

5 Posts
5 Users
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Purity
Joined: 28.01.2008

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG TboneMunson ($200)
UTG+1 lobo54 ($209.10)
CO AceKanone ($572.15)
BTN #1 Mathlete ($285.45)
SB noVaRaIn ($213.60)
BB Hero ($551.70)

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BB J♣ Q♦
2 folds, AceKanone raises to $6, #1 Mathlete calls $6, noVaRaIn calls $5, Hero raises to $32, AceKanone folds, #1 Mathlete folds, noVaRaIn raises to $82

Villain is unknown

Assuming villain is never folding (which is pretty obvious I guess because he's pretty much committed with anything) I need around 42% equity to make the shove/call breakeven.

I think his range mainly consist out of 22-TT, I assume AK/JJ+ almost always squeezes so I don't put that in his range.

Hand 0: 40.809% 40.44% 00.37% 29084617 263713.00 { QdJh }
Hand 1: 59.191% 58.82% 00.37% 42304725 263713.00 { TT-66, AQs, AQo }

If I take out AQo out of his range I have 45% equity. If I add a bit more small PP that increases my equity by 1-2%.

I guess it's really close right ? I mean he really can't have alot of strong hands here. And sometimes he might show up with some trashy hands aswel I think.

Shove or fold is both 0 EV after analyzing the spot or maybe I am looking at it wrong.


4 replies

I don't know his stats, but I'm pretty sure you are wrong about his range (unless it's some kind of a maniac spewtard), I don't have an eq. on this laptop but you are no where close to 42%.


Hi,

I like the squeeze very much if the table was kind of aggressive.
After the 2nd coldcaller 4-bets over your pretty strong looking squeeze, you are crushed really bad with nearly every hand and with QJo it's a turbofold.
Villain could be easily trapping with AA, KK, (QQ, AKs) against which you are just toast. I think your range above is way too wide, except villain is some kind of maniac, which I doubt if he already has ~300BB.

Best regards,
Anin


VzLOM
Joined: 23.12.2007

I assume AK/JJ+ almost always squeezes so I don't put that in his range.

i can see people playin AK this way alot on nl100 (more IP than oop, but still) , so i think your range is not right


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

If you had some read to confirm your thoughts your ranges could definitely be accurate and therefore I'd like a shove pretty much.

However, since he is unknown you're probably unknown to him, too.
Therefore he might be less inclined to make a move like this with a low pair, after all if you shove he'd be committed with 22+, therefore he's effectively playing for a whole stack against an unknown (i.e. he has no clue whether you're even capable of squeezing light in this spot or not).

Concluding: I'd just fold it this time although a shove can't really be super- -EV since even the slightest bit of foldequity wins you a huge pot now and then, there are already >60BB in the pot so obv you don't need much foldequity.