[Closed] AA early in tournament vs bubble play.

you are mistaken

May be, but I am not convinced.

Let's say the stacks are: 7000; 3000; 2000 and 1500, with the hero having 1500. Lets assume the blinds are 100/200 or higher. I know the 3000 and 2000 stacks are only going to call with AA, or other monsters. Thus it does not matter, if I have AK or 87s, other than the fact, that I have a better chance of sucking out with the latter. Even 72o would be profitable, it I know with a high certainty that he will fold. Even if I were to push with KTs and villain calls with AQ, I would still win about 40% of the time. Most of the time he does not call, however, and I get a significant increase to my stack at minimal risk, better, than losing every 5th hand vs random nuthose escapees in the early stages.

Unless it is a winner takes all, the goal should be to survive until you can rely more on skill and less on the luck factor. That is what I think, at least.

Getting paid "1 to 1" when your a 4 to 1 favourite is about as good as it gets. If your folding Aces you might aswell just throw your money down the drain

I was thinking mainly about KK. Yes, I doubt I would fold aces

The top hands will be profitable for you, so you should play 'm.

And if you wait for the game to become 4-5 handed before you start abusing you'll be the shortstack most of the time ^^

Originally posted by viewer88
The top hands will be profitable for you, so you should play 'm.

And if you wait for the game to become 4-5 handed before you start abusing you'll be the shortstack most of the time ^^

lol this...

And as a good player you have a edge through out all the tourney... and giving up this edge is just blasphemy...

If you're folding all the hands you can forget about having 1500 when bubble comes. You may make an experiment, just sit out at the start of the SnG and wait for blind to get to 100/200 - that's pretty much the same approach as playing AA only, you will find yourself with 100-500 chips (if you by some miracle were given a couple of walks) or busted most of the time on 50/100, 75/150 levels.

I hope you made this thread as a joke and never seriously thought about it. ♦

Even if your opponents do not understand the bubble, this does not mean that if you get to the bubble you definitely cash. This is particularly true if you get to the bubble with a small stack.

You should not pass up large edges early on, even if it mean you risk busting out. Doubling up to 3000 chips is worth only slightly less than having 1500 chips even if you have a large skill advantage. If you bust out early, you saved some time, and you can take your skill advantage to another tournament.

A common misconception is that you will develop a large skill advantage by turning down larger and larger edges. In fact, your skill advantage comes from being able to identify good situations. If you pass on them, your skill advantage decreases.

You should be playing many, many more hands than AA in early levels. You should develop the skill to play more hands profitably. Usually, in early levels, you are not simply calling all-in preflop. Even a hand like 76o should be played in some situations in early levels, usually playing a small pot. You should not be very risk-averse in large pots with 9 players left, and your risk aversion in small pots should be microscopic.