[Closed] 55 3 barrel bluff NL100 SH

A nit won't fold AQ+ here. I'd fire the turn on a 6, otherwise I just give up. it's goona be expensive to try and get him to fold 99-JJ and like I said going to be really hard getting him Ax.

Originally posted by maya1984
A nit won't fold AQ+ here. I'd fire the turn on a 6, otherwise I just give up. it's goona be expensive to try and get him to fold 99-JJ and like I said going to be really hard getting him Ax.

can you please explain to me what the difference is between a turned 6 and a turned 7?

Originally posted by MathhNes

Originally posted by maya1984
A nit won't fold AQ+ here. I'd fire the turn on a 6, otherwise I just give up. it's goona be expensive to try and get him to fold 99-JJ and like I said going to be really hard getting him Ax.

can you please explain to me what the difference is between a turned 6 and a turned 7?

+1
Btw the line looks reasanoble for me.

what is your pfr from you utg? Reason I ask is whether villain can (if he is thinking) expect you to have a lot of sc type hands in your range. If not, he very likely puts you on Ax here (especially when you cbet into two people on Ace high bd) and therefore I think he's less likely to fold good Ax type hands on the River.

I think if you are going to cbet on this board, you may need to make it a little bigger (at least against two people I think you would normally bet AQ or AK largee?). but maybe the judge could confirm on this point?

I like your second barrel on the turn with double gut shot, because I definitely think he should be folding hands like TT now. However, I think I marginally prefer checking the River because I don't think the 8 helps your hand that often and so I think villain won't fold most of the hands he called on the turn with, at least not for odds of 2.5:1

Now i relook on this hand and i agree with Tim64:
we bet Turn to rep Ax and to fold midPPs => he fold all PPs => he's only with Ax on river and 8 is blank so he might call alot here.

Depens on your utg or range but I'd assume no one is giving up with AQ in that spot. AJ is borderline between calling and folding.

Originally posted by MathhNes

Originally posted by maya1984
A nit won't fold AQ+ here. I'd fire the turn on a 6, otherwise I just give up. it's goona be expensive to try and get him to fold 99-JJ and like I said going to be really hard getting him Ax.

can you please explain to me what the difference is between a turned 6 and a turned 7?

sorry I missed the double gutter. It doesn't change your equity. I just noticed that guy has only 80bbs which makes it even harder for him to fold on the river.

I just noticed that guy has only 80bbs which makes it even harder for him to fold on the river.

I think our caller has 100bb; it's the small blind (who folds on the flop) who has 80 big blinds.

Hmm after we cbet the flop imo BU will have a reasonably strong range - he calls not only vs our strong UTGrange, but also with a player left to act behind him who does not have a ll stack.

If I do cbet I'd make it a bit smaller, doesn't need to be too much, but I plan on check/folding the turn due to the strong callingranges the opponents have once we cbet our UTGrange on an Ahigh board, $8 would be better imo.

If we assume he has a callingrange like {22+,AJs+,AQo+, some SCs} preflop {I just put in all QQ+ as well but it should still be a good approximation), he will fold a lot on the flop.
The remaining range looks something like this:
{TT+,AJs+,AQo+,44,33}. Imo he might fold AJ and he will fold TT-KK,but usually he doesn't fold AQ+, so we fold the bottom 2.1% of a 5.6% range, or 37.5% of the range.
Since we bet 17 to win 43 we need 39.5% foldequity.
Therefore it's close in any case, if he's any tighter either preflop or on the flop it's definitely -EV to bet, so imo the turn is a c/f.

If I do cbet I'd make it a bit smaller, doesn't need to be too much, but I plan on check/folding the turn due to the strong callingranges the opponents have once we cbet our UTGrange on an Ahigh board, $8 would be better imo.

Hero cbet to $6.50. You said if cbets he should make it smaller, then suggested $8. Am I missing s/thing?

Originally posted by Bierbaer
{TT+,AJs+,AQo+,44,33}. Imo he might fold AJ and he will fold TT-KK,but usually he doesn't fold AQ+, so we fold the bottom 2.1% of a 5.6% range, or 37.5% of the range.
Since we bet 17 to win 43 we need 39.5% foldequity.
Therefore it's close in any case, if he's any tighter either preflop or on the flop it's definitely -EV to bet, so imo the turn is a c/f.

But with added equity including implied from turn to river isnt it +EV to bet because it is better than c/c - since we have FE as mentioned

Also im not sure about the 39,5% fold equity because we do have equity when called and he is likely to bet if checked to?

Originally posted by Tim64

If I do cbet I'd make it a bit smaller, doesn't need to be too much, but I plan on check/folding the turn due to the strong callingranges the opponents have once we cbet our UTGrange on an Ahigh board, $8 would be better imo.

Hero cbet to $6.50. You said if cbets he should make it smaller, then suggested $8. Am I missing s/thing?

Erm I guess I was confused ♦. I meant to say that I'd make it bigger.

Originally posted by MathhNes

Originally posted by Bierbaer
{TT+,AJs+,AQo+,44,33}. Imo he might fold AJ and he will fold TT-KK,but usually he doesn't fold AQ+, so we fold the bottom 2.1% of a 5.6% range, or 37.5% of the range.
Since we bet 17 to win 43 we need 39.5% foldequity.
Therefore it's close in any case, if he's any tighter either preflop or on the flop it's definitely -EV to bet, so imo the turn is a c/f.

But with added equity including implied from turn to river isnt it +EV to bet because it is better than c/c - since we have FE as mentioned

Also im not sure about the 39,5% fold equity because we do have equity when called and he is likely to bet if checked to?

You're right: I disregarded the equity we have in case we're called. Sorry, my bad.
Looking at the hand again I agree, we should bet the turn because even though only regarding the foldequity it is -EV to bet, but we don't c/f the river 100% of the time, in fact we even get some additional money when we valuebet our straight.