[Closed] 1330 games , Should I be worried of my red line ?

don't play cash with that redline

and yes, you should worry about getting into heaven when running 100 buyins or more above EV

There is still luck left in your red line. The all-in luck adjustment doesn't see the luck of being on the right side of KK vs. AA. However, it eliminates over 70% of the luck in super turbos. If your red line is break-even after 1200 super turbos, that strongly suggests that your true ROI is within 4% of 0, and there is a decent chance your true ROI is within 2% of 0 (before rakeback). This doesn't mean you have to give your winnings back, and there is no restoring force, but it suggests that you should work on your game before moving up.

What did I tell you - post it in SNG strat and see what Phzon says...

Now go and study you fricking luckbox

I've been studying...
My red line went up... and now my green line is -35 BI below red line...
Sure I shouldn't be worried as long as my red line goes up and I use BRM ?

Like I posted in your blog - look at your all time graph for ST's

It will keep you grounded to the fact that you were v lucky to be rolled for $5.30, and yes given that you had ~140BI's for your limit, this swing shouldn't kill you, it will just remind you why we need to use conservative BRM for this crazy game

Originally posted by FWKanobi
Hi ,
I'm playing Super Turbo.
I have 500 games @ 2.15$ and the rest @ 5.3$
It appears my red line is BE... should I be worried by it or keep playing my game?

i have pretty much the same kind of graph with you.

It's really frustrating because i don't really understand why the red line never goes up I look at all my games after each session and there are leaks, but i also think i'm clearly beating the game.

What do the lines represent?

frankly it was better before when the green went up. make the necessary adjusments asap

Originally posted by matel17
What do the lines represent?

In the grand scheme of things, absolutely nothing.

What does affect my red line to go up or down ? only my equity ?
If im with 3BB and in the SB with 23o and I fold it into the BB when I suppose to push ATC , will it make the red line go down ? and if the BB calls and shows AK will it also affect my red line to go down ?!

Screw the little red line! Learn as much as you can and play till your eyes bleed with rock-solid bankroll management and you'll have a better picture in time.

ev gap started raising after i did a good review of my play and fix many leaks.i still have though tons of leaks .(maybe i got worse and just being lucky so far after 5k games we will see)

Red line is calculated only in hands where You or your opponent is allin, but it depends on Your current EV and equity against his hand. If You win a lot of chips with no showdown and then move in all hands against shortstacks, your red line probably will go up, coz Your EV is so high. Then You can make -EV move, but your EV still is higher than it was when you started tournament. But if You have 10.2bb and You decide to raise to 10bb and opponent calls with 77 and he flops a set and You have nothing and You move in now, Your red line will dramatically decrease, because it's calculated from the moment when you're allin, but if You moved in pre, it would be a cf and line would decrease a little bit

Originally posted by getdotacom
Red line is calculated only in hands where You or your opponent is allin, but it depends on Your current EV and equity against his hand. If You win a lot of chips with no showdown and then move in all hands against shortstacks, your red line probably will go up, coz Your EV is so high. Then You can make -EV move, but your EV still is higher than it was when you started tournament. But if You have 10.2bb and You decide to raise to 10bb and opponent calls with 77 and he flops a set and You have nothing and You move in now, Your red line will dramatically decrease, because it's calculated from the moment when you're allin, but if You moved in pre, it would be a cf and line would decrease a little bit

so in BVB when I have 93o with 6BB (ST) and SNGWiz says push ATC and I push , and Villain calls with KTo and wins the hand , I made the correct decision and my EV will go.... down ?!

What happens if you are missing lots of bubble abuse/atc spots?

Does this affect the red line at all?

If it doesn't then I don't see how the red line can have any use at all- SNGs are about getting your money in often, not necessarily getting it in good...

Originally posted by goldchess
What happens if you are missing lots of bubble abuse/atc spots?

Does this affect the red line at all?

If it doesn't then I don't see how the red line can have any use at all- SNGs are about getting your money in often, not necessarily getting it in good...

This is what I'm asking

Any time you go all in and get called, you are below EV if you lose, above EV if you win. If say you play the whole thing without going all in once, your EV will be neutral (other than the small EV changes because of the all ins from the other players). This doesn't mean your EV line stays flat, but your EV line will go up or down just as much as your winnings.

Originally posted by goldchess
What happens if you are missing lots of bubble abuse/atc spots?

Does this affect the red line at all?

If it doesn't then I don't see how the red line can have any use at all- SNGs are about getting your money in often, not necessarily getting it in good...

When you abuse and get away with in, naturally your equity increases and your EV increases. But it is EV neutral in terms of the deviation of your EV line from the actual win loss line, coz you got exactly as many chips as you were supposed to get (which is all the dead,because theres no showdown)

Originally posted by FWKanobi

so in BVB when I have 93o with 6BB (ST) and SNGWiz says push ATC and I push , and Villain calls with KTo and wins the hand , I made the correct decision and my EV will go.... down ?!

Well i think your EV will go UP in this case not down 32% of that pot should've been yours, but you lost the 32% when villain won.

it doesn't evaluate the goodness of your push per se. Just how much you were expected to win after you got called, and how much you actually won.

Originally posted by goldchess
What happens if you are missing lots of bubble abuse/atc spots?

Does this affect the red line at all?

If you MISS them it is not accounted for at all. In the same way that if you open fold AA at any point in the tournament the change in your EV will be 0.

Originally posted by goldchess
If it doesn't then I don't see how the red line can have any use at all- SNGs are about getting your money in often, not necessarily getting it in good...

Although I take your point that the redline is less useful than it appears to be, I doubt that it can't "have any use at all". Over a few 1000 games it can tell you a lot about whether the style of poker you are playing is a winning or losing one - the more games you play with a positive EV line the more chance there is that you are playing a winning game.

Originally posted by pzhon
If your red line is break-even after 1200 super turbos, that strongly suggests that your true ROI is within 4% of 0, and there is a decent chance your true ROI is within 2% of 0