Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($70.50)
BB ($100)
Hero ($106)
Dealt to Hero T♥ 9♠
Hero raises to $3, SB raises to $5, fold, Hero calls $2
FLOP ($11) K♠ 7♦ 8♣
SB bets $11, Hero calls $11
TURN ($33) K♠ 7♦ 8♣ 6♦
SB checks, Hero checks
RIVER ($33) K♠ 7♦ 8♣ 6♦ J♥
SB checks, Hero bets $21, SB calls $21
villain is 100/100 after 3 hands; unknown, likely fish. I think we can comfortably call the resteal pre as this is a monster a lot of the time. once villain bet pot on the flop I think we can definitely assume he has a big hand (you see this all the time from fish: small betting preflop combined with massive over protection post-flop).
So I think, even though villain has only 70bb, we have a close call on the flop with our oesd+implieds. However, I think I played the rest of the hand badly.
I belive we need to get an additional $33 from villain in order to make the call breakeven. We get this from: $55/$11 = 5:1 = 16% (our equity on the flop vs a strong made hand).
So once we hit on the turn I guess we have to bet, once villain checked? Maybe $15, to set up a comfortable river shove? As played, having checked behind, I am forced to bet pot on the river (rather than two thirds pot) in order to make the maths work.
Do I have the calculations right? Any other thoughts?
Thanks
Bet the turn, shove the river...
