[Closed] unlucky board!

Puke/fold the river is pretty much all we can do here I think.

On that flop he's calling your bet with JT, 67, 99, 88, 55, JJ, maybe QQ (unlikely he'll smooth call with this preflop)

Come turn anything that called flop will call the turn, but it's a fine bet because now you're beating most of his range.

Come river, he'll raise thinking he's slowplayed his trips, hit top two, or still has a strong overpair (maybe.) I'd call here, because only the 67, JJ and the QQ beat you, but the JT, 99, 88, 55 lose. Throw in random bluffs and you're winning well over half the time.

^ What random bluffs? I don't see villain ever getting to the river with a hand that's bluffing here.

Against the range you gave him of JT, 67, 99, 88, 55 and JJ, we have around 38% equity, whereas we need at least 40% to call.

On top of that I think villain could also call the flop with gutshots like QJ and QT, maybe even show up with Q9s given his loose stats. Even if we take QQ out of his range we get no where near the right price to call, IMO.

Of course I could be wrong, we will see what the hand judge says. But seems like a fold to me

According to the pokerstrategy equilator on the river we get equity of 58% vs his JTs, 67s, 99, 88, 55, JJ
and equity of 42% vs his JTs, 67s, 99, 88, 55, JJ, QQ

Don't think he's calling with off suited 67 there, even with his loose preflop range. Should've mentioned that in my post, sorry.

He could possibly call with JT off suit pre, but that adds to our equity.

Edit: I think there's always some bluff in everyone's range. I mainly think that because Dan Harrington told me so.

Of course, but if you expect there to be bluffs in his range then you also have to expect more Qx and 7x hands in his range. You can't have it both ways

That's true. Fundamentally i'm naturally suspicious of huge raises on the river (much to my detriment) so i try and wrangle it so i can justify a call

Originally posted by SPwoodrose
Puke/fold the river is pretty much all we can do here I think.

+1

Every Q and every 7 beats you.
And the line villain took is clearly nuts nearly ever. Villain could easily play 97, 87, 75, T7, Q9, Q8, QJ, QT that way and of course 76.
=> Fold and be happy that villain didn't get another shape of money out of you.

Hi,

Originally posted by AninIII

Originally posted by SPwoodrose
Puke/fold the river is pretty much all we can do here I think.

+1

Every Q and every 7 beats you.
And the line villain took is clearly nuts nearly always. Villain could easily play 97, 87, 75, T7, Q9, Q8, QJ, QT that way and of course 76.
=> Fold and be happy that villain didn't get another shape of money out of you.

This, fyp.

As for the Dan Harrington thing, while it's usually a fairly accurate model to take into account random spazzes from unknowns, I don't really like to think of it that way, it's just the easy way out to put villains on bluffs instead of actually reading ranges. Also be careful, 12+-tabling nits for example won't fit into that model, most of them just don't have the time nor the natural inclinaison to spazz out.

Hope it helps.