No Limit Holdem Tournament
PokerStars
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$15+$1
Stacks:
UTG (1,530)
UTG+1 (1,480)
Hero (MP1) (2,945)
MP2 (1,465)
CO (830)
BTN (1,450)
SB (1,725)
BB (2,075)
Blinds: 50/100
Pre-Flop: (150, 8 players) Hero is MP1 J♠ J♥
2 folds, Hero raises to 250, 4 folds, BB raises to 400, Hero ???
Villain 30/3 5.9% 3bet 37 hands.
Originally posted by Hlynkinn
damn... hate these spots..
but yea I think we have to let our hand go here..
Surely you can just call and re evaluate on the flop?
Your pretty deep here and its only 150 more into a nice sized pot.
the 3% PFR makes me fold pre.
call to stack on good flops would be a good option if he was like 30/25 rather than 30/3
You have to call this at least for set value imo... (in position as well)
You will stack off villain's AA/KK pretty much every time if you hit the J. (getting almost 5:1 on a call, and if you count villain's likely c-bet odds are 7-8:1 at least)
Originally posted by malosanmaka
You have to call this at least for set value imo... (in position as well)You will stack off villain's AA/KK pretty much every time if you hit the J. (getting almost 5:1 on a call, and if you count villain's likely c-bet odds are 7-8:1 at least)
I like it. You already have 1:5, if you get 1/2 pot size bet when you hit it's already profitable. If he is that strong you should win more.
BUT
37 hands is no sample to be super scared of a 30/3 raise...
since when were the odds of flopping a set 5:1, even 8:1 taking a high cbet into account still isnt good enough.
just looking at pure odds its still a bad call pre if you put him on QQ+ and play to hit a J only.
not to mention the ICM tax effects, the value of a chip lost is more than the value of a chip gained at this stage.
Sure, if you think he is 3betting wide enough, then either 4bet shove or flat and stack on good flops. but if you really put him on QQ+ then its a very standard r/f pre.
There's 700 in the pot.
It's 4,6:1 to call.
IF he's on QQ+ he will stack off most of the time, so you actually have 1600 implied. That's 10.6x the cost to call.
So odds + implied are 15,2:1. Not fantastic, but not horrible.
Plus, ICM tax shouldn't be to high. If you fold you have 2695. If you call 2545.
Hi all,
Originally posted by santostr
There's 700 in the pot.
It's 4,6:1 to call.IF he's on QQ+ he will stack off most of the time, so you actually have 1600 implied. That's 10.6x the cost to call.
So odds + implied are 15,2:1. Not fantastic, but not horrible.
Plus, ICM tax shouldn't be to high. If you fold you have 2695. If you call 2545.
Nice calc! If we had ~20:1 here I would call preflop. As played folding is slightly better (but it's very close and calling isn't bad at all). Keep in mind that if flop comes AJx, KJx, he may not stack off with QQ, etc. And there are set over set considerations. Not every flop is J52 rainbow.
