[Closed] Atc

Just think about a situation like

CO - 200
BU - 4500
SB - 4500
BB - 4300

with blinds 200/400 in a 50/30/20 payout structure. If CO and BU fold and SB pushes, what would you call with if you were BB?

QQ+ or even tighter, which means it's perfect for SB to be pushing ATC ?

Right (actually TT+ since the BB needs 73% equity against your range). Even if the BB is making some very bad calls with AK or AQ, it is just so unlikely that you will get called that pushing 72o is more profitable than folding.

Here are the raw ICM values which ignore that the CO will be all-in next hand:

Fold: 32.24%
Steal: 33.8%
Failed steal, win: 42.91%
Failed steal, lose: 10.81%
Failed steal, 20% wins: 17.24%

So, getting called hurts you 32.24-17.24 = 15%. Stealing gains 1.56%. As long as you are stealing over 10 times for every time you are getting called, it is better to push than to fold. If you get called by 77+ AQ+, that is too loose but only a 6% range, which would mean 16 folds for every call. So, pushing 72o would be profitable.

You should consider limping in or making a smaller raise... and then reject these alternatives as less profitable than pushing.

Originally posted by Trbst
So any suggestions, tips, tricks and clarifications would come in handy here.

Mostly, how should I evaluate the strength of my hand to determine whether K4o is suitable push per se. I know we can't put anything in a neat box, but as I said, any elaborations would help out.

Many players feel uncomfortable shoving widely, but remember that you have a powerful semibluff. You have two ways to win: Take the blinds, or draw out after getting called. Since getting called is not always fatal, it is not too risky to push 10+ bb at 1.5 bb in blinds.

The main thing to look at is the stacks. The blinds are not even so important, since larger blinds increase both the reward of stealing and the chance to get called, and these effects roughly cancel.

You should rarely push ATC into the chip leader, or the short stack. There are exceptions on the bubble, but you should mainly bully players you cover who are in decent shape if they fold, the medium stacks. Players who cover you by a lot are not risk-averse against you, so pushing too widely is not good.

I strongly recommend using the PokerStrategy ICM Trainer to study push/fold play near the bubble. This should give you a lot of practice with situations where you should be pushing widely, and even ATC.

Hey pzhon ,

Thanks for that Appreciate it.

In your first post though, how did you come up with that 73% figure ? And most importantly, how can I arrive at a number like that to determine whether if I'm BB in the situation above I can call.

Your second post makes it all the more clear - as with the example jbpatzer gave, it's really about stacks and what you have to lose on the bubble. Thanks again.

To get the 73% figure, I used my program ICM Explorer, which you can download for free. (The unregistered version handles 50-30-20 tournaments.) Enter the stacks and blinds, set the Bettor and Caller, and then click the "Call Push?" button.

As I mentioned in my "Calling All-In" video, you can estimate the equity you need in two steps. First, compute the equity you need to break even in chips. This is a simple calculation, and you can use precomputed values like that you are getting 3:2 if the small blind pushes for 5 big blinds, so that you need 40% equity to break even in chips. Second, based on the stacks, you estimate a risk premium. Early in the tournament, the risk premium may be 5%. On the bubble with equal stacks, the risk premium is about 15%. If there is a very short stack on the bubble, the risk premium is usually higher. Once you have the equity you need to break even in chips, add the risk premium to get the equity you need for a profitable call. ICM Explorer reports these components as well as the equity needed to call.