[Closed] Nl100 Sh - Kk Ip

Preflop is ok.

Flop I'd also call because he has quite some hands that beat us in his range. Btw since a raise on this board looks so strong (it hits our range) I don't expect him to make a semibluff3bet.

On the turn I'd also call, again there's not too much sense in raising for the same reasons as on the flop.

On the river I think we should valuebet a bit over half pot, something like $24-$26 should be fine.
The Q only helped QQ but he would probably bet it all the time as well as other full houses.

We're basically trying to get some value from JJ/TT, maybe some kind of 9x that's bluffcatching now.

In case he checkraises I'd also fold. Again there are a lot of strong hands in our range: 99,88,77, JTs, 87s, maybe 65s and 97s.

Ok, so far, so good.

Unfortunately, I only bet $16 on the river, which he called with TT.
For some reason, I thought he could have some hands like AT which would have bet their draw but then gave up on the river.

But actually they are not calling anything, so we may as well maximise against the range that can call (TT/JJ), so I think I bet too little.

Nice hand. I play big hands like this as well - and the good think is that you extracted nice profit from worse hand that would likely fold to your 3bet pre in comparison. And you did not isolate against AA, in which situation you would surely lose whole your stack in case you 3betted.

One comment to the river - the good thing in betting more on river is that he will have smaller tendencies for check/raise bluffs (which they sometimes do if you bet too small).

I like to summarize both options (as I make similar mistakes in betting too small on river here :tongue:) :

1) You BET small like 16$
a) in case he has smaller hand with SD value, he is bluffcatching and calls.
b) in case he has AT, he is probably folding. But from time to time, he can see that you called flop + turn and place thin value bet on river which really looks like medium hand which is going for this value and is folding to river raise almost always. He can try to c/r river like 62$. (However I think he does not play his value hands like this cause most of the time he expects you to check-back river your medium hands with SD value. But would you call such raise? I doubt it and I sometimes exploit regs on river with such a bluff even if it is weird line, they fold).
c) in case he has AA or some 2 pair, he can check river to pot control and induce. He calls.

2) You bet 25$ on river.
a) he calls his bluffcatcher anyway. On the other hand I would sometimes fold my TT if I was him to such a bet (whereas I always call 16$).
b) he does not try to c/r now as your line looks much stronger.
c) in case he has AA or 2pair, he calls.

I see probabilities of a) - c) scenarios like this in both 1)-2) Options
a) 45%
b) 45%
c) 10%

All in all, I don´t think that Option 1 is much worse. In case that you got paid 100% of the time in 1-a) and only 80% of the time in 2-a) then your RIVER EV is

1) 0,45*16 + 0,45 * 0 - 0,1*16 = 7-2 - 1,6 = +5,6$
2) 0,45 * 0,8 * 25 + 0,45*0 - 0,1 * 25 = 9 - 2,5 = +6,5$

BUT - If he succesfully bluffs you out of the hand with his C/R on river only 10% of the time in scenario 1, the Scenario 2 already is MUCH BETTER.

May be you can bet 21$ to maximize the value ♦ ♦ ♦