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[Closed] NL100 SH - JKo - tp on flop facing raise

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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($238)
BB ($315)
Hero ($100)
CO ($134)
BTN ($124)

Dealt to Hero J♠ K♣

Hero raises to $3.50, CO calls $3.50, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($8.50) 8♠ 7♣ J♣

Hero bets $5, CO raises to $18, Hero calls $13

TURN ($44.50) 8♠ 7♣ J♣ J♥

Hero checks, CO bets $27, Hero calls $27

RIVER ($98.50) 8♠ 7♣ J♣ J♥ 9♠

Hero checks, CO bets $86.15 (AI), Hero calls $51.50 (AI)

villain is 4bb/100 reg nl100; 22/16/2, 720 hnds, 5% 3b, raise cb 10%. Surely capable of some moves with this winrate(?). No specific history althoug villain calling me IP a lot during this session and generally messing with me. (I moved soon after this hand...)

villains range for raising flop: {overpairs/air/77/88/78s/AJ/ :club: draws/9Ts}

We are doing so/so vs {AA, KK, QQ, 88-77, 55-44, AcQc, AJs, AcTc, Ac9c, Ad5d, KJs, QJs, QcTc, 87s, AJo, AJs, KJs, QJs} with around 40% eQ.

Turn improves our hand a lot. Now we are mainly worried about AJ/77/88/9Ts but I dont think we can fold?
Not sure about river. Dont think he would play TT like this so I think his range is pretty polarized.
Since he pots it I guess we could fold. Our hand looks a lot like a scared overpair or Jx trying to induce, so Im not sure villain can expect us to fold much (in which case it starts to look even more like a v/bet).

I hate life in this spot.


1 reply
Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

I think the problem you have on the flop is, that you don't have a plan for different turns.

When you look at your equity on different turncards you'll see, that basically no card really changes your equity all that much, except for when the turn is a J, your equity ranges from 35% to 40% on clubs, overcards etc.

The problem is, that you don't know what he's continuing to bet with on the turn.

So since our playability is bad and we're OOP I think we have a 3bet or fold decision on the flop.
Because he already has some history with you and he can expect you to have a lot of TPGK/overpair type of hands and also that you don't cbet too much air because he has a lot of draws in his range, I expect him to actually not bluffraise this with pure air, probably not even with medium strength draws - he probably expects to not have too much foldequity.
For these reasons I'd actually bet/fold the flop.

As played on the turn I think we should c/rAI. It's hard to say what his range is exactly, but if he has QQ+ he's likely to check back the river, in case he has a draw he gets a cheap river and can either bluff or valuebet us effectively.
Also vs worse Jx there are some scarecards (mostly clubs) or in case he has JT he even has 8 outs.

Additionally to all that, even if he turned a hand like 98 into a bluff on the flop, there are a ton of cards that make our life hard in case he shoves the river (again any club as well as 9 and T.