Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
Hero ($28.14)
BB ($49.71)
UTG ($25)
UTG+1 ($26.04)
CO ($31.65)
BTN ($24.63)
Dealt to Hero 6♠ 6♣
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.65, fold
FLOP ($1.75) J♥ 6♦ 2♣
Hero checks, BTN checks
TURN ($1.75) J♥ 6♦ 2♣ 2♠
Hero bets $1.25, BTN calls $1.25
RIVER ($4.25) J♥ 6♦ 2♣ 2♠ 8♥
Hero bets $3.25, BTN raises to $7.08, Hero raises to $26.14 (AI), BTN calls $15.55 (AI)
$47.04
villain is 16/12, 27% BU steal, 67% cbet, aggression drops down geometrically flop->turn->river (hence we call 66, since we are likely to see cheap showdown)
after he check's behind flop, I put him on either a weak J that doesn't want to bet many streets or on 77-TT. Him calling the 2 on the turn doesn't change that range. Now on the river it gets interesting - he minraizes our barrel. Is shove the correct play? Now that I think of it, it smells of 88, but regardless, my shove can't be called by the range I put him on - he's probably not going to call a 3b-shove. Maybe 2x can, but does he have a deuce all that often in that spot?
Question is should we just flat, because the hands we beat fold anyway, and he sometimes shows up with 88?
