the stats that you need i think u need the call F 4bet vs raise PF 4bet , does he flat every single hand ? or will he 5bet shove QQ+ AK ? ( need to take notes for this)
/ preflop AF(not total AF)( if preflop AF is 0-1 , then high chances you are looking at a 3bet for value i think , if preflop AF is 1 and above , probably his doing so much lighter) /
it will help you determine if its
1) Villian 3 bets / call F 4bet for showdown value
QQ+ , AK
or
2) villian light 3 bet / call F 4bet to hit the nuts ( 2 pair and above)
QQ+ , AK , suited connectors , PP .
over much more hands then 200 though.
Flop : 5Q6d
1) hands that beat you : QQ , AA
hands that you beat : AKs
hands that draw : KK
2) hands that beat you : QQ AA , 56s , 55 , 66
hands that you beat : 34s , 45s , 78 s + , AK , 77 - JJ ,
hands that draw : KK
on turn , 5Q64ds
1) hands that beat you : QQ , AA
hands that you beat : AKs
hands that draw : KK
2) hands that beat you : QQ AA , 56s , 78s , 55, 66
hands that you beat : 34s , 45s , 89 s + , AKs , 77 - JJ ,
hands that draw : KK
on river , 5Q646R
so the main question to answer is , did he light 3 bet you ?
if he did then for 2) you should have bet the flop ,
otherwise , his range for 1) that wins/loses you on the flop , doesn't change on the river.
should i bet /fold or bet/call him down for 1) ?
using combinatorics
on a 5Q6 flop , with KK , his range is QQ + , AKs how often are you ahead or behind ?
1) hands that beat you : QQ (3 - QdQh , QhQc , QcQd), AA (6 combinations , AdAs , AdAc , AdAh , AsAc , AsAh , AcAh)
hands that you beat : AKs (the fact that you have 2 kings in your hand , this value drops to pretty low , unless u know he will do the same with AKo)
2 combinations : AK spade , AK club.
hands that draw : KK ( 1 combination , KsKc)
out of the 12 hands that he has that 3bets for value , you only beat 2 and draw with 1 .
if we change his range to QQ+ , AK o/s
then
1) hands that beat you : QQ (3 - QdQh , QhQc , QcQd), AA (6 combinations , AdAs , AdAc , AdAh , AsAc , AsAh , AcAh)
hands that you beat : AK (8 combinations)
hands that draw : KK ( 1 combination , KsKc)
so just by including AKo , the number of hands you beat go up to 8 , the number of hands you are behind : 9.
if his range include AQs then
then
1) hands that beat you : QQ (3 - QdQh , QhQc , QcQd), AA (6 combinations , AdAs , AdAc , AdAh , AsAc , AsAh , AcAh)
hands that you beat : AK (8 combinations) , AQs ( 3 combinations)
hands that draw : KK ( 1 combination , KsKc)
so just by including AKo and AQs , the number of hands you beat go up to 12 , the number of hands you are behind : 9.
i would gather more information about :
1) how he plays AQs , AKo , AKs , QQ + , 22-JJs , suited connectors OOP
and of course 2) IP
with more information about him , then i can make a better decision.
So after this hand , note down his preflop tendencies :what is the hand that he 3bet/flat preflop . note down too his postflop tendencies: 1/4 the pot on the turn ( is such a small bet meant to not chase you away ? or cos he turned a flush draw ?) , pot sized bet on the river ( does he PSB with missed flush draw ? or knowing that you called his turn bet , you have a strong enough hand to call a river PSB )