[Closed] NL100 FR AK squeez vs caller ip

Hi,

flop is bad for you as he is rarely folding his perceived pocket pair.
His preflop call showed a lot of strenght as you showed a lot of strength before by squeezing 4 guys preflop in FR.
His range is sth. like 77-QQ, maybe even trapping KK, AA and JTs, AK, AQs.
Maybe c/f isn't the worst idea because I expect villain to call your contibet quite often.

Best regards,
Anin

Meeh this spot sucks. Check/folding is a valid option imo, but it feels a bit weak and it might still be +EV to bet.

In general I rather bet/fold or bet/call (depending on the potequity) in those spots to have a chance of taking down the pot, here a bet commits us in most cases.
Against 88-QQ we have 19% equity. If we bet $33 we have to call $42 for a pot of ~$212 so we need 19.8% - and this is the worst case range he could have.

If we bet $23 with the plan of bet/calling we need 24.5%. Assuming he shoves 4 combinations of AQ we already have the equity to bet/call - and we completely disregarded the foldequity by now.
Obviously the $23 bet might incline him to shove a lot of Ax so our equity might even be better.

In case he calls the plan is to shove any turn. Since he didn't shove on the drawy board I expect him to neither have a strong hand nor a draw - with those he would've gotten it in usually.
So there even though the SPR looks pretty bad we could still have some foldequity, after all he has over 40BB left and he might wants to save them.

I shoved $80 on the flop and villain folded, but I wasn't sure if it's a good play.

Betting $33 or $23 seems to be a good ideea.

How about preflop. What would you do if one of the players would have raised small or shoved?

Originally posted by Gabinr1
How about preflop. What would you do if one of the players would have raised small or shoved?

Having invested one quarter of my stack I'm not capable of folding the hand any more, but I might be wrong - I don't have too much FR experience and this is one of the spots where knowing the general going-broke-ranges of people is crucial.
If no one ever gets it in with worse hands than QQ+ and no one ever bluffs this might still be a close fold.
But in general since our equity is so good:
Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.891% 21.78% 21.67% 62664931 62334490.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 60.040% 43.82% 21.94% 126054931 63110759.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

we have to get it in imo. Remember we only bring 75 for a pot of 200 so we need 37.5% equity.

this may be a stupid question but y not bet squezze smaller pre, like $17.

this may be a stupid question but y not bet squezze smaller pre, like $17.

I don't think it's a stupid question. I guess two reasons for not squeezing smaller:

1. We don't want to encourage people to shove over the top of us (at least, I don't think we do - we are not likely going to be a favourite all-in pre). Instead, the best possible outcome for us is to take down the dead money pre. So we want to raise to an amount that makes us look committed (even if we actually decide to sQz/fold pre)
2. if we squeeze to $17, the pot is $33.50 and villains would have to call $12. I'm not sure if that would be enough for them to think about calling - but it might be close since the pot is getting pretty big and once one person calls, you might end up with everyone calling (not sure if that's realistic, but it is something to consider).

Originally posted by Tim64
I don't think it's a stupid question.

This.

Tim, I agree with you about this:
"2. if we squeeze to $17, the pot is $33.50 and villains would have to call $12. I'm not sure if that would be enough for them to think about calling - but it might be close since the pot is getting pretty big and once one person calls, you might end up with everyone calling (not sure if that's realistic, but it is something to consider)."

But with this one:
"1. We don't want to encourage people to shove over the top of us (at least, I don't think we do - we are not likely going to be a favourite all-in pre). Instead, the best possible outcome for us is to take down the dead money pre. So we want to raise to an amount that makes us look committed (even if we actually decide to sQz/fold pre)"

...there are some exceptions where we might actually want people to shove - if they do it with worse Ax or other unpaired hands (this is kinda obvious but I thought I'd point it out in case you overlooked it).
In general I agree though, there are 16BB of deadmoney in the pot so we're more than happy to take it down immediately.