[Closed] $27 two UTG short spots

if i remember correctly colin moshman in his book wrote that when u re 4 bb or lower and blinds are coming to you u just close your eyes and push atc. allthough i dont use it for atc i shove with a pretty wide range 75-80%+.
but many people like to wait for a better hand to bb.

atc for both look good. we have FE on the blinds so i would much rather shove here with FE than have to call atc next hand

I would shove araound 70% in both of these hands dependings on table dynamic, stats, reads and stuff like that. I dont like 100% range here.

Hand 1 shove, hand 2 fold. I just don't see any FE in hand 2.

Originally posted by Anssi
I just don't see any FE in hand 2.

guys fold to my 3BB shoves all the time. even regs

Yes, maybe they are folding 10% of their hands. Thats doenst necessarily make a shove with 100% profitable. Also I think some players might expect you to be shoving close to 100% there, especially regs.

Originally posted by Preaver
Yes, maybe they are folding 10% of their hands. Thats doenst necessarily make a shove with 100% profitable. Also I think some players might expect you to be shoving close to 100% there, especially regs.

well, you have 2 options.

shove here, or call ATC next hand.

if i have 10% FE on this hand. I would much rather shove it in here even if i only get a fold 10% of the time. to me, thats much better than calling off atc next hand with obviously zero FE (because a reg is never giving us a walk).

Although tbh, ive never seen a reg bb call 90% in this spot. id say around 50% is reasonable considering it costs him 1/3 his stack and a good portion of his FE.

Even if the bb is not calling 90%, other players may call you as well.

The BB has to put in 1260 Chips, but he can win 3010 with a call. Because he also puts us on a very loose range I think he is capable of calling with 100% there.
Furthermore the SB is very short as well, which means he is going to jump in once in a while as well. Everything put together I would give myself 0 FE in the second hand and I am definitely more happy to be committed next hand, because its likely our hand will be better than 75o.

There is also an off-chance that we might make it into the money without having to put in our stack. Even though the chances are slim, the possibility exists, because two other players are very short as well and they might be willing to shove all-In in this or the next hand.

Originally posted by Preaver
The BB has to put in 1260 Chips, but he can win 3010 with a call. Because he also puts us on a very loose range I think he is capable of calling with 100% there.
Furthermore the SB is very short as well, which means he is going to jump in once in a while as well. Everything put together I would give myself 0 FE in the second hand and I am definitely more happy to be committed next hand, because its likely our hand will be better than 75o.

There is also an off-chance that we might make it into the money without having to put in our stack. Even though the chances are slim, the possibility exists, because two other players are very short as well and they might be willing to shove all-In in this or the next hand.

good reasoning, you have convinced me

I tease Collin about that passage regularly. If he had to write the book again now, he would say something different.

There is less fold equity in today's games, since people suspect that people pushing UTG might be on a very wide range.

When you push with a very short stack, you might get called and overcalled. That may mean you have to beat two players to avoid bubbling out. You might expect to get called and overcalled much more often than an isolation raise would get called, so you may be significantly worse off than a push/fold model assumes. This means the Nash calculator and SNG Wizard may overestimate the value of pushing even though they always say not to push hands like these.

If you fold, two of your opponents may collide. Even a 10% chance of a collision is worth a lot.

Hitting the blinds is bad, but not as bad as people think. You might get a good hand in the blinds. You might get a walk. You might be able to make an odds call and then draw out. You are allowed to fold while you get 2:1 odds if that is better than calling; see my video "Calling All-In."

I don't think these hands are close to pushes. I see a lot of people push bad hands without enough folding equity, and it looks like a huge mistake however fashionable it is.

is there a way of calculating how valuable the FE portion of these pushes is? and then applying that to estimate a -ve edge we need to take?

it seems like you are pushing 25-30% in both hands pzhon?

this is one part of a STT where winning players can differ immensly in their ranges. I would love to analyse these spots, do you have any advice on how to do the calculations on our options?

I agree with pzhon, I don't think you have close to the FE, that you would need here. And your stack is still worth something, so don't waste it, rough guess is something like 55% is a push to me. On the bubble I am looser in similar spots.

Originally posted by Unam
On the bubble I am looser in similar spots.

trying to get my head around the adjustments we need to make.

Reason why we push wider on the bubble in similar spots is because our opponents should be more risk-averse and call us tighter?

reason why you think 55% is because you think unknowns will call ~25% getting these odds?

just trying to get a bit more information out of you unam/pzhon

Reasons why I am pushing wider on the bubble, opponents should (according to ICM have to ) call us tighter and we will blind down faster.
The 55% was a just guess, I am trying to push hands, that have (suckout) vlaue when I am called.