[Closed] Nl Jj

Hi,

Everybody is lost there. You just have to recognize you can't possibly make a clear-cut decision without better reads, then pick whatever line is deemed best against his overall player type knowing it's a dicey assumption either way, might be right, might be wrong against that particular player.

The way I see it 38 hands isn't enough, a 18/11 could turn out as pretty much anything. His high AF coupled with his low WTSD and his overall tight looking vpip/pfr, I'd say he's more likely to turn out as a somewhat tight regular, especially when you factor in his 100+bb stack.

From that, his range for calling preflop and calling your flop c-bet includes all pocket pairs, probably at least AQ/KQ, and maybe some A-high floats like AK/AJ if he's not really fit-or-fold in position. Either way there usually isn't much value in betting the turn again against that type of player, and they won't bet much of anything we beat when checked to either, so check/calling isn't an appealing option. Here he made it really small so we can't really afford to take the chance he's never ever ever betting worse, so calling is okay, otherwise we're check/folding mostly.

As played on the river his range is now boats/Qx and complete airballs, and it's hard for him to have complete airballs that decided to bet twice, so it's a lot more likely he just make a suckbet on the turn with a better hand. I like your fold.

Hope it helps.