[Closed] Rivered top 2 vs pretty nitty reg nl25

Squeeze preflop against this guy (if you call him "pretty nitty", how do I have to play to be labelled as "fairly LAG-y" by you? O_o ).

As played flop & turn are ok (turn is never a c/f though, lead is a possibility as well).

On the river you absolutely have to bet bigger. He never folds any Ace, so get as much value as possible. If he raises it's such a gross spot IMO. It seems such a suicidal bluff, and he probably has the full 16 KJ-combo's in his range (not just suited). On the other hand, he never has a flopped big hand (not betting the turn w/ set or two pair would be beyond afwul), he could have a busted draw, and we have top two :baby:.

28% equity needed...

I probably call & cry when he shows me the nuts.

I call it off too and hope to see AK or AT enough to make it worthwhile.
You can easily have a flush draw in this spot which you try to bluff cheaply - I think villain can do this with more Ax hands than you would expect since our hand doesn't look that much like a strong Ace.

As falcone1983 said, if you bet river bigger it would be easier to fold but as it is I think your hand is sufficiently underrepped that you are forced to call.

Finally, I dont think flopped sets are that likely - he has to bet the turn with them if he has any kind of brain.

I would personally not b/f river against him although a lot of times you see there QQ or KJ. I think he can sometimes raise there with bluffs and top two seems too strong to b/f there

I meant nitty post-flop, having a 1.3 agg factor. thanks for the answers guys