Stackoffski stacks up

Spin 'n Gold break-even%

A while ago I made a simplified calculcation how often you have to win a $1 spin 'n gold at GGPoker in order to break-even (and win with rakeback and leaderboard-winnings).

It's hard to calculate exactly because sometimes there is a prize for 2nd and 3rd place as well, but the calculation that I made is not exact, but needs some notes/explanation to interpreted the number:

First, this prize-structure table from GG is my starting info and is for $1 and $10 games:

(The rake is 7%)

Second: I completely neglected the top prize as it may very well never happen ... I can't play enough games for that. So I added it's % to the 100 multiplier prize, which happens 1 in 25,000 games.

Thirdly: I also neglected the 2nd place and 3rd place prizes completely. These games don't happen frequently except for the 10-multiplier game, which has a small 2nd prize. So, this will make the number that I calculate a bit (just a little bit though) pessimistic, and by achieving the break even % from my calculation, you would actually win with rakeback, 2nd place finishes, any leaderboard-winnings, and yes, the $100,000 prize.

So, I used this table instead of the actual one:

Taking in mind the notes I made earlier:
- The average prize is: $2.74
- I would need to win: 36.52% of my games

Calculations:

(.4761*2 + .4412*3 + .03*4 + 0.028*5 + 0.0245*8 + 0.00008*30 + 0.00004*100) = $2.7382

100/2.7382 = 36.520%

Welcome back to the game!

Do you ever use the insurrance option for the spin&golds?

To add images, just add in front of the url and [/inng] (nn=m) at the end and it should work.
(Or use the icon with the landscape obve the post window and paste the url there.)
But in this case, the dropbox link isn't working at all right now (You might want to use a public upload url instead)

Anyways: GOOD LUCK ON YOUR CHALLENGE!!:f_drink:

Thank you ... I registered on some other image-site now!

About the insurrance: no ... that means you lose a buyin when it's not the lowest multiplier, and you win 1 buyin when it is right? I think the lowest multiplier-game should happen more than 50% for that!

* I don't know how to post the images

You can just drag and drop pictures from you PC to post.

Originally posted by Khiiniau

* I don't know how to post the images

You can just drag and drop pictures from you PC to post.

lol, thanks! How nice is that! noob me

This is the graph of my little spin n gold adventure until now ($1 games):

Not too good results yet, but I started and played without studying anything, so I will read some info on this site soon for starters!

This is a bb/hands graph of the same games:

As you can see, I've been very lucky with the all-ins so far!! That's not a good sign when losing

I wonder though how much bb/100 you have to win to break-even, if that is calculatable ... It's more than just winning, that's not enough because the average prize is smaller than $3.

Bankroll Challenge

I will be doing a bankroll challenge from $150 to $750. (edit: $175 to $1000)

Probably will take some time, as I am not playing a lot of volume. I am aiming for 1000 hands/day on average, which takes me about 2hrs 2-tabling fastfold. I usually play 2 or 3 tables fastfold. But 2 tables is fun for me, and 4 tables feels like 'work'. Guess I'm a fun-player ...

Today's 1000 hands went great! Luck was on my side this time around:

And some preflop stats, so you can see what type of player I am (1000 hands only):

Now I need to get more hands in the fresh database!

Btw, I calculated the pool's average RFI% and 3bet% at $2nl and $5nl at GG. It only comes from a 12K sample from a while back, but that is 12K hands for every position, so that's about 72K preflop lines from opponents.

I will redo this when I have more recent hands.

Some preflop equity-calculations:

rfi = 2.5bbs
small 3bet = 3 * rfi = 7.5bbs
large 3bet = 5 * rfi = 12.5bbs

Going down now:

Will still play some more today. Maybe 3 or 4 tables and a bit tighter since it's a weekend day.

I think I should open way more in the sb, but vs regs I don't open some crap, maybe I should, or it's short term numbers ... will change nothing for now, but if the RFI at the sb doesn't get higher I should definitely open more vs regs as well.

Welcome back to your bankroll challenge! I added your avatar back - now till you finish the first goal of $1k!

Ah thank you reliable Sven!

So the bankroll challenge is from 175 to 1000 I think, either that or 150 to 750 ... I don't know what SvenBe noted.

I took yesterday off.
So far, so so-so, not too good:

But ... I'm still losing from MP, so perhaps it's good.

Will play some more today! Want to have more pool data to calculate some averages, preflop ranges for example, and maybe come up with my average counter-ranges... instead of using some supposed-to-be gto charts. If they where truly GTO, they'd all be the same??

And horrible luck in the spin n golds:

5K hands ... -5 buyins EV

That's not too good:

But .. still losing from EP and MP, so I'm not too worried yet about this small sample.

I calculated the preflop fold-equity I have had these 5K hands from all opening-positions, and tied with that the hand-equity required vs resistance (calls & 3bets):

I posted a question about running it twice, I am a bit confused whether it is really just cutting variance or not.

Had a great session! A lot of luck with the preflop cards! About breaking-even EV now, which is great after losing. Also because I am still losing from EP and MP positions.

What I take from this table that I posted earlier:

You still need quite some equity vs resistance at EP and MP! you need to win about 1/3 hands they continue. Which is probably fine vs calls, but they also 3bet.
Only at CO you can really loose up, and at BT and SB it's ridiculously profitable! Only need to win 1/10 of the hands they continue to break even!!!

Play tight(er) preflop in early positions and loosy goosy in late positions!

I color-code players according to their (preflop) aggression ... raise the nits with "anything" from LP, just look out for 3bettors ... the tags, slags (slightly loose and aggresive :f_biggrin:), lags and maniacs

6444 Hands now:

Bankroll is at $178.66 (lost $15 with spin n golds)

BB Calls
These are the times that I called a 2bet from the BB:

I don't know if it is just a small sample, but it makes me wanna never call again ... just figure how much monies I would have!

I think I call less than people/charts recommend, but it makes sense for these stakes at fastfold perhaps:
I showed earlier that I have all this preflop fold-equity there, but that means when they do enter the pot they tend to be strong (not all opponents though).

I know I only need to win 30% of hands or so, but realistically, being out of position, I don't even think I am with a lot of hands that seem nice to defend and I see showing up in charts (hands like lower suited kings for example). Well, maybe I don't play them correctly and lose too much postflop ... but, for now, I am going to tighten up considerably with the preflop calls in the BB!

Be the aggressor, not the defender!

Hi Stackoffski,
I see great blog from your side. It is good when one has a place to express one's experiences and emotions. Sort of like a vent. I wish you success with your endeavor.
Рemember from me: every session you are not losing is profitable ♠_drink:
I want to ask this volume of tournaments you play, how much time does it take you in a day. Approximately.