How to survive the long term in poker

Dara O'Kearney shares insights about how the longevity and reaching the pinnacle of poker are not the same thing.

I had a very interesting discussion recently about long term success in poker, in the context of players who seem to crush the game for a short period of time then disappear.

Over the course of my career, one thing I’ve observed is that the group of players that achieve longevity is not the same as the group that reaches the very pinnacle at some point in their career.

Sure, I know guys who have crushed for a decade or longer, but many of them just disappeared.

Some burned out, some moved on to another career voluntarily, but most just fell behind.

Ego Inflation

It’s often the case that the very top players at any particular moment are there mainly due to a combination of rungood and doing something that accidentally exploits the current meta.

That was particularly true in the pre-solver era where we were all guessing at what was optimal.

Additionally, the ego inflation that often accompanies rising to the top makes it particularly difficult to adjust and accept that you have to learn new tricks when the old ones that got you there stop working. It makes it particularly difficult for those players to drop down in stakes when it becomes necessary.

About ten years ago, a top player tweeted that online poker was becoming so difficult that in ten years only the top 3-5% would still be around. My response was to agree that it would be 3-5% who would survive, but it wouldn’t be the top players necessarily.

This is exactly how it panned out: the players I know who survived are typically the disciplined, humble grinders with no illusions that they are the best. Ironically, the player who made the tweet is not around any more.

I guess my message is optimise for longevity, not to be the best in the world right now.

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