ICM is about chips, not cards
Who covers whom is the most important consideration when ICM is significant, so says Dara O'Kearmey.
Below is an image of the same spot in a tournament, with just one difference.
Both are UTG vs BB, single raised pot, 942 rainbow flop, on the bubble, 40bbs effective. The only difference is that on the left the BB has 60bbs and on the right the BB has 120bbs. The average stack is 30bbs.
942 rainbow is not a flop that particularly favours the BB, in fact, UTG has a 58% equity advantage. Yet in this scenario, the BB leads out 41% of the time and often uses quite a large bet size.
What on earth is happening here?
Chips, not cards
In a normal poker decision, the strategy is guided by the following factors, in no particular order:
- Position: Who gets to act last and therefore has an informational advantage?
- Range: Who has the stronger preflop cards and who has connected with this board more?
- Stack depth: What is the stack-to-pot ratio and how does that change the way we extract the most value?
When ICM is extreme, I would argue that this is how most strategies are formed:
- Stack depth: Who is the covering player and therefore can exert more ICM pressure?
Most of the time, the strategy is determined by the chip leader. They get to be more aggressive because they are not at risk of elimination, and the covered player has to play more passively. Even with strong hands and strong ranges.
In the example above, the BB leads because they are not at risk, but also for value. UTG should, if they are playing correctly, check back a lot on this board to preserve their chips.
If you are relatively new to pre and post flop ICM solvers, play around with the stacks first, before tweaking the ranges and payout structures. You will find when ICM is significant, poker is a game of chips, not cards.
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