Was Lococo's call a massive ICM punt?
Dara O'Kearney looks at the infamous hand between Koray Aldemir and Alejandro Lococo from an ICM perspective. Was it really that bad?
A lot of people have asked me about the big hand that saw chip leader Koray Aldemir bust 2nd in chips Alejandro Lococo from the Main Event in 7th place. Was it the biggest 'ICM Punt' we have seen in the Main Event?
If you missed the hand, here it is. On a river of J J 9 8 3 Aldemir puts Lococo all-in with 9 9. Perhaps the most surprising thing of all is how quickly Lococo calls with just T T.
What made this such a surprising hand is the fact that Lococo was 2nd in chips at the time. The ICM pressure on him was immense, he could easily have folded, waited for a better spot and laddered a few page jumps while he did.
So how bad was it? Let's first look at how the chips of the players stood before the hand started, as well as what the official payout would have been if they maintained their position:
| Player | Chips | Potential Prize |
|---|---|---|
| Koray Aldemir | 139,800,000 | $8,000,000 |
| Alejandro Lococo | 67,000,000 | $4,300,000 |
| George Holmes | 63,800,000 | $3,000,000 |
| Joshua Remito | 58,400,000 | $2,300,000 |
| Hye Park | 33,200,000 | $1,800,000 |
| Jack Oliver | 28,300,000 | $1,400,000 |
| Ozgur Secilmis | 8,800,000 | $1,225,000 |
Looking at the free equity calculator at ICMIZER 3 you can quickly work out the equities of each player (Aledmir is Seat 1, Lococo is Seat 2):
Onto the hand and by the river there was 90,400,000 in the middle, Lococo had 46,100,000 behind and Aldemir put him all in. If Lococo had folded at this point these would have been the new equities:
His new equity would be $3,022,820, down from $3,559,763.
If he called and lost his equity becomes $1,225,000 (the 7th place prize). If he calls and wins the new equites looks like this:
He now has $4,832,280.67 in equity.
To work out the actual equity he needed to make the call we have to do a Bubble Factor calculation, which looks like this.
Equity risked/equity gained = Bubble Factor
Bubble Factor/Bubble Factor+1 = required breakeven equity
In this example he is risking $1,797,820 in equity ($3,022,820 minus the guaranteed $1,225,000) to gain $1,809,460 in equity (His new $4,832,280 equity minus $3,022,820).
1,797,820/1,809,460 = 0.99
0.99/1.99 = 50%
He needs 50% equity to call. That sounds like he can call really wide and it would be if this were a preflop decision, but remember he is getting essentially 2-1 on his call post flop (it was a pot size bet by the river) and more importantly the ranges have really narrowed at this point.
You'll have to forgive me, I normally would look this hand up in PIOSolver but I am currently in Vegas so I am winging the ranges a little. Without ICM for Aldemir to be balanced with a pot size bet he needs two value hands for every bluff. Edit: As Isaac Haxton pointed out to me after publishing, he actually needs one bluff for every value bet because of the near 1:1 ICM ratio rather than pot odds.
Either way, assuming these ranges are split a little with other actions, the betting range might look like this:
All the Jx are value, the full houses are obviously and QT is for the straight. The bluffs are hands with Tx/8x in them because they block straights/boats. Then you have 'merge' type hands that are a little of both like T9s.
In this example, Lococo has 40% equity against that range, which is a far cry from what he needs to call here.
It's very easy for us to sit in our armchairs and lament the call. There is even a logic to it given he has two blockers to the nut straight, TT might be a better call than AA, for example. We have no idea of the previous history and reads that were in play at the time.
But with so much money on the line and so much ICM pressure because he was 2nd in chips at the time, in hindsight with 20/20 vision this looks like an easy fold. However, this might be a good call in the context of winning the Main Event is worth more to him than laddering. The endorsements that could come with being the 2nd Argentinian Main Event champion could be more than the equity he risked, for example. He may have also decided that taking a slighly minus EV line was his best shot at overtaking Aldemir, who has a significant skill edge over the table.
Like all things in poker, it depends.
Dara O'Kearney's new book Endgame Poker Strategy: The ICM Book is out now.
