Was this 8-way chop a good deal for the players?
The chip leader sacrificed the chance to win £100,000 more but everyone got at least x228 their initial buy-in. Would you deal at this final table?
Whenever there is a notable chop deal in a poker tournament I get asked about it, because I co-wrote a book where we discussed final table deals.
This time it was the record-breaking Grosvenor Goliath, which had 11,749 (5,181 entries and 6,568 re-entries) for the £200 event, making it bigger than any field outside of the World Series of Poker.
The original billed prize was £278,390 but as you can imagine, a deal was struck at the final table. It was a pure ICM deal which saw chip leader Gilbert Black take home £175,575, but everyone secured at least £55,580 which was more than double the 8th place prize. Everyone at the final table got at least 228 times their initial £200 investment.
This is what the deal looked like, along with the original payout if each player secured the position they were in at the time:
| Player | Stack | Original Payout | ICM Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Black | 87,800,000 | £278,390 | £175,575 |
| Will Watkins | 76,700,000 | £190,000 | £166,070 |
| Steven Ricketts | 33,600,000 | £140,000 | £111,905 |
| James Hearty | 23,200,000 | £95,000 | £91,655 |
| James Brown | 21,800,000 | £65,000 | £88,570 |
| Alex Abalasei | 16,700,000 | £45,000 | £76,462 |
| Reece Ling | 14,000,000 | £35,000 | £69,415 |
| Lance Connolly | 12,100,000 | £27,000 | £64,150 |
| Ben Miller | 9,200,000 | £24,000 | £55,580 |
A happy deal is a good deal
Before I delve deeper into the numbers, the answer is yes, this was a good deal for all concerned. Any deal that is a snap yes for all parties is a good deal.
This was a £200 tournament and the eight-place stack got £55,580, which is 228 times their buy-in. This is also double what he would have got if he bust next. That is better than the winner would get in most £1,000 tournaments. The biggest stack got £175,575 which is 878 times their buy-in.
Five players got more than they were projected to win, one player got close to what he was projected to win, and two players sacrificed quite a lot to secure over £150,000 each.
ICM assumes equal skill and had the tournament played out, these are the finish distributions for each player:
| Player | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Black | 29.8% | 24.7% | 18.6% | 12.7% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Will Watkins | 26.0% | 23.4% | 19.0% | 13.9% | 9.1% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Steven Ricketts | 11.4% | 12.8% | 14.5% | 15.3% | 14.7% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 2.5% |
| James Hearty | 7.9% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 14.1% | 14.4% | 13.5% | 10.9% | 6.3% |
| James Brown | 7.4% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 14.5% | 13.9% | 11.8% | 7.3% |
| Alex Abalasei | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 13.9% | 15.3% | 15.4% | 12.5% |
| Reece Ling | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 15.3% | 17.4% | 17.1% |
| Lance Connolly | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 14.9% | 18.5% | 21.7% |
| Ben Miller | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 18.5% | 32.4% |
Gilbert Black started the final table with £175,575 in equity, but 45.5% of the time he wins less than that. This was not a case of him 'losing' the extra £100,000, because he only takes it down 29.8% of the time. This was a great deal for him, he secured six-figures in a £200 tournament.
Think of the final table as a new tournament where Black buys in for £175,575 and can only win a max of £278,390. That does not sound very appealing, does it? Dara O'Kearney did a good job explaining the mindset you should have in these deals. These final tables come around once in a lifetime if you are lucky, making a deal makes perfect sense.
And, just one more time, this was a £200 tournament and everyone secured a prize of at least £55,580. This was a great deal for all concerned, well done to them.
Is that a good deal? Let us know in the comments:
