News: GTO Poker Theories: Occam's Razor

The simplest solution is usually the correct one, or is it? Well, yes. Take a lot of the headaches out of poker with Occam's Razor.

One of the real gifts poker has given me is that it has been a great jumping off point to learn things from other disciplines like economics, AI, psychology and Game Theory. So here is a series of articles where I bring some of the most interesting things I have learned from other subjects outside of poker which are applicable in this game we know and love.

Human beings have a reliable habit of making things needlessly complicated, which is why Occam's Razor is a very useful heuristic. Occam's Razor is a problem solving device which states that when there are two competing hypotheses, the simplest one is usually correct. A variant of it was popularised by the Arthur Conan Doyle character Sherlock Holmes when he said “If you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth".

A typical example to illustrate it goes as follows. You come back home and your kitchen has flooded, was it because:

Your ex partner copied your key before you broke up, snuck into the house while you were out, and purposely flooded your kitchen
A burst water pipe

Most of the time, it is going to be the latter. Occam's Razor was initually devised as a way to judge competing scientific theories but is also used among skeptics who are at odds with conspiracy theorists. A skeptic doesn't believe something he or she has not seen with their own eyes or has been scientifically proven, and most of the time they will be correct. The conspiracy theorist or person who is ideologically possessed will go on greater and greater mental leaps to keep believing something, as this classic scene from the Simpsons highlights:

Keep it simple

Poker is a very complex game and in particular it is a game of incomplete information. There is a lot you will never know because of the nature of the game, which leads many of us on crazy journeys trying to figure out what our opponent is thinking, as well as to justify why we did something seemingly odd.

The way to misaply Occam's Razor in poker is very easy, you would simply leap to the first instinct you have without even considering anything else. This would be a mistake, with every stake level you move up, the decisions should get more complex and there will be more things to consider. For example in $1 MTTs you can maybe get away with just thinking about hand selection, but that would not get you far in $5,000 Main Events with GTO Wizards. The best players in the world are capable of factoring the most information.

Occam's Razor is useful in poker once you have weighed up all the best of your poker knowledge and then are left to make a decision between two interpretations. When all else is said and done, the simpler explanation is probably right.

I once worked on a poker TV show where one of the best players in the field called off a massive overbet all-in on the river with third pair on a very dangerous board with broadway straight and flush possibilities. His opponent, a nervous online qualifier who had barely played a hand all day, did indeed have the nut flush.

In his post-game interview the eliminated player went on a long explanation of GTO, and merged ranges, and combinatorics, to conclude he still thought it was the right call. But even the novices among us knew that the online qualifier was tight as a rock and nervous as hell, he was never bluffing there. The simplest explanation is usually the correct one.

Occam's Razor is probably less helpful the more you move up the stakes but very helpful at low stakes and against amateur players. If a pro limps at the final table of a $10,000 buy-in Main Event it should send your spidey sense tingling, but if the player who hasn't chosen a poker avatar yet does it in a $5.50 MTT, you can usually conclude it's a sign of inexperience.

Occam's Razor is not proof of anything, it is not evidence for a particular argument and of course it will sometimes be wrong. It is, however, a very useful heuristic for saving time, mental energy and not needlessly complicating things.

What theories from outside of poker have helped your game? Let us know in the comments.

Keep it simple

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