When is the most profitable time to enter the Main Event?

With the news that two Day 1s have been added to the WSOP Main Event for overseas players, Barry Carter asks when Euro grinders should buy in?

A huge and unprecedented story over the weekend as the WSOP Main Event schedule has been changed to accommodate overseas travellers.

Two extra Day 1s have been added and the overall schedule for the event tweaked a little. Day 1E takes place on November 8, Day 1F takes place on November 9 and late registers can also buy-in on Day 2CEF on November 10. They also have the option to late register on Day 2ABD on November 9, which actually takes place alongside Day 1F.

The revised WSOP Main Event schedule. This will also appear soon at https://t.co/CBiN23ZrMf pic.twitter.com/S7IvHF8Cbt

— WSOP (@WSOP) October 16, 2021

I can appreciate why some people are frustrated with this news as it has messed up some travel plans, but this had to be done. At the last moment overseas players had a chance to play in the Main Event without having to stay in another country for two weeks first. It will be a mad scramble but the Main Event has a shot of being the biggest one ever after such a turbulent year.

The toughest Day 1s in poker history?

It does bring up some really interesting considerations, however, in terms of game selection. I can’t help but think that Day 1E and Day 1F are going to be the two toughest Day 1s in WSOP history.

There will be plenty of American tourists of course, but the field will be mostly made up of serious online poker pros from Europe who otherwise were not going to play.

I think we will see some of the toughest ever starting tables this year, even if the players are not instantly recognisable. I doubt we will see that many travelling recreational players in these fields, given the short notice to book flights.

Is Day 2ABD the value?

If I was going from overseas I’d actually be looking at the Day 2ABD on November 9 instead of one of the Day 1s. While I have written plenty about the profitability of late regging tournaments, most players agree that it’s a bad idea in the WSOP Main Event where Day 1 is full of plucky amateurs who don’t know how to play deep stacks.

However, if your only option was Day 1E or 1F which might be a murderer’s row of online regs, I’m not sure playing deepstacked poker would be enticing. If you buy-in to Day 2ABD you start with 75 big blinds which is actually a respectable stack depth to start with. Yes you will have missed out on that soft Day 1 field, but I think a Day 2 made up of the softer Day 1 survivors on Day 1A, 1B and 1D still is more profitable than 300 big blinds against some of the best online regulars in the world.

Plus late regging is instantly profitable, your $10k will be worth more than $10k in equity right away and you are going to start much closer to the money.

It’s an interesting dynamic, one we will never see again, but one thing I would say for sure is that there could be some value if you could bet on the winner to be somebody who registered after November 7.

Which starting day would you pick if you arrived on November 8? Let us know in the comments.