Variância Wins
Bom.. o que posso dizer. A famosa variância me pegou forte de quarta para cá, apesar de quase não ter entrado em TILT e parando logo que percebi que estava em TILT, as percas foram enormes..
Um show de jogadas bizarras dos donkeys, onde levei inúmeras bads e coolers. Praticamente todos os meus AA-QQ pagos perdi a mão, e em inúmeras vezes a stack. Vamos ver como vou reagir a essa situação, mas está osso..
Se a maré estava boa até quarta-feira onde fiquei 15BI up, mudou drasticamente de quarta para hoje (domingo) e ainda persiste. Estou -20BI down do que estava, e minha banca caiu de $130 para $90.
Sei que em algumas poucas mãos realmente joguei errado e reconheço, mas foram minorias. Revendo minhas mãos e sessões eu pouparia uns $10 dos $40 dólares perdidos, o que é bastante até mas não consigo ver como grandes vantagens perante a fase em que eu estou passando, onde nada entra, e os donkeys acertam tudo, o que talves seja um erro, uma vez que saber minimizar as perdas o máximo possível também é importante, mesmo que fossem $1.
Pelo menos me conforta o fato de que em pelo menos 80% das vezes estou colocando o dinheiro na frente. É sinal de que não estou jogando tão errado assim.
Abaixo o gráfico das 9k de hands que joguei essa semana e algumas mãos que a variância me castigou...

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Full Tilt - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
MP: $1.97
CO: $2.29
Hero (BTN): $2.00
SB: $3.45
BB: $4.75
UTG: $6.54
SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has A♦ A♣
UTG raises to $0.06, MP calls $0.06, CO raises to $0.10, Hero raises to $0.45, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO calls $0.35
Flop: ($1.05, 2 players) J♥ J♠ 9♣
CO bets $0.30, Hero raises to $0.90, CO calls $0.60
Turn: ($2.85, 2 players) 8♣
CO bets $0.94 and is all-in, Hero calls $0.65 and is all-in
River: ($4.15, 2 players) 2♥
CO shows T♥ Q♦ (Straight, Queen High) (PreFlop 15%, Flop 30%, Turn 91%)
Hero shows A♦ A♣ (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks) (PreFlop 85%, Flop 70%, Turn 9%)
CO wins $3.88
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Full Tilt - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
CO: $3.55
BTN: $2.12
Hero (SB): $2.51
BB: $2.26
UTG: $2.20
Hero posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has 7♥ 7♦
fold, CO calls $0.02, BTN raises to $0.08, Hero calls $0.07, fold, CO calls $0.06
Flop: ($0.26, 3 players) 6♣ 7♣ A♠
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $0.16, Hero raises to $0.58, fold, BTN calls $0.42
Turn: ($1.42, 2 players) 3♣
Hero bets $0.80, BTN raises to $1.46 and is all-in, Hero calls $0.66
River: ($4.34, 2 players) 4♦
BTN shows A♥ A♦ (Three of a Kind, Aces) (PreFlop 81%, Flop 96%, Turn 98%)
Hero shows 7♥ 7♦ (Three of a Kind, Sevens) (PreFlop 19%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)
BTN wins $4.06
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Full Tilt - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
CO: $2.50
BTN: $2.00
SB: $1.55
BB: $2.07
Hero (UTG): $2.03
SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has K♠ K♥
Hero raises to $0.07, fold, fold, SB calls $0.06, BB calls $0.05
Flop: ($0.21, 3 players) 9♠ 8♠ 9♥
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.16, fold, BB raises to $0.32, Hero raises to $1.17, BB raises to $2.00 and is all-in, Hero calls $0.79 and is all-in
Turn: ($4.13, 2 players) 7♥
River: ($4.13, 2 players) 6♥
BB shows K♣ 9♦ (Three of a Kind, Nines) (PreFlop 8%, Flop 91%, Turn 98%)
Hero shows K♠ K♥ (Two Pair, Kings and Nines) (PreFlop 92%, Flop 9%, Turn 2%)
BB wins $3.86
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Full Tilt - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
BTN: $1.03
Hero (SB): $2.00
BB: $2.00
UTG: $2.13
MP: $0.88
CO: $3.90
Hero posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has J♣ J♥
fold, MP calls $0.02, fold, BTN raises to $1.03 and is all-in, Hero calls $1.02, fold, fold
Flop: ($2.10, 2 players) T♠ 9♣ T♥
Turn: ($2.10, 2 players) 7♣
River: ($2.10, 2 players) 2♣
BTN shows 6♣ 5♣ (Flush, Nine High) (PreFlop 21%, Flop 3%, Turn 16%)
Hero shows J♣ J♥ (Two Pair, Jacks and Tens) (PreFlop 79%, Flop 97%, Turn 84%)
BTN wins $1.96
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Full Tilt - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
CO: $2.76
BTN: $1.42
SB: $1.44
BB: $5.59
UTG: $3.83
Hero (MP): $2.07
SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has A♦ A♥
fold, Hero raises to $0.07, CO calls $0.07, fold, fold, BB raises to $0.29, Hero raises to $0.95, fold, BB raises to $5.59 and is all-in, Hero calls $1.12 and is all-in
Flop: ($4.22, 2 players) 5♣ 4♥ 7♥
Turn: ($4.22, 2 players) K♣
River: ($4.22, 2 players) K♥
BB shows K♠ K♦ (Four of a Kind, Kings) (PreFlop 18%, Flop 9%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows A♦ A♥ (Two Pair, Aces and Kings) (PreFlop 82%, Flop 91%, Turn 5%)
BB wins $3.94
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Full Tilt - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
Hero (UTG): $3.54
MP: $1.76
CO: $0.81
BTN: $1.94
SB: $2.47
BB: $0.32
SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has A♥ A♣
Hero raises to $0.07, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.06, fold
Flop: ($0.16, 2 players) 7♣ 7♠ 9♥
SB bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20
Turn: ($0.56, 2 players) 4♠
SB bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50
River: ($1.56, 2 players) J♦
SB bets $1.70 and is all-in, Hero calls $1.70
SB shows J♣ J♥ (Full House, Jacks full of Sevens) (PreFlop 18%, Flop 10%, Turn 5%)
Hero mucks A♥ A♣ (Two Pair, Aces and Sevens) (PreFlop 82%, Flop 90%, Turn 95%)
SB wins $4.63
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Full Tilt - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
Hero (BB): $3.56
UTG: $3.77
BTN: $0.63
SB: $1.00
SB posts SB $0.01, Hero posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has Q♥ Q♠
UTG raises to $0.06, BTN calls $0.06, fold, Hero raises to $0.32, UTG calls $0.26, BTN calls $0.26
Flop: ($0.97, 3 players) 4♠ 7♣ 5♥
Hero bets $0.70, fold, BTN calls $0.31 and is all-in
Turn: ($1.59, 2 players) T♦
River: ($1.59, 2 players) 9♦
Hero shows Q♥ Q♠ (One Pair, Queens) (PreFlop 87%, Flop 80%, Turn 82%)
BTN shows 8♥ J♠ (Straight, Jack High) (PreFlop 13%, Flop 20%, Turn 18%)
BTN wins $1.49
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Full Tilt - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
BTN: $2.06
SB: $7.89
BB: $5.31
Hero (UTG): $2.00
MP: $2.00
CO: $1.88
SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has K♠ K♣
Hero raises to $0.07, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.07, fold, BB calls $0.05
Flop: ($0.22, 3 players) 3♥ J♣ 5♥
BB checks, Hero bets $0.16, BTN raises to $0.38, fold, Hero raises to $1.30, BTN raises to $1.99 and is all-in, Hero calls $0.63 and is all-in
Turn: ($4.08, 2 players) 3♦
River: ($4.08, 2 players) A♠
BTN shows J♦ A♦ (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks) (PreFlop 33%, Flop 22%, Turn 11%)
Hero shows K♠ K♣ (Two Pair, Kings and Threes) (PreFlop 67%, Flop 78%, Turn 89%)
BTN wins $3.81
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Full Tilt - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
MP: $1.38
CO: $4.22
BTN: $2.08
SB: $1.02
BB: $3.31
Hero (UTG): $2.03
SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has K♠ K♦
Hero raises to $0.07, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.06, BB calls $0.05
Flop: ($0.21, 3 players) 7♣ T♠ 9♦
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.16, SB calls $0.16, fold
Turn: ($0.53, 2 players) 4♣
SB checks, Hero bets $0.36, SB raises to $0.72, Hero raises to $1.08, SB calls $0.07 and is all-in
River: ($2.11, 2 players) K♣
SB shows 8♦ J♣ (Straight, Jack High) (PreFlop 15%, Flop 96%, Turn 100%)
Hero shows K♠ K♦ (Three of a Kind, Kings) (PreFlop 85%, Flop 4%, Turn 0%)
SB wins $1.97
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Full Tilt - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
UTG: $2.76
MP: $2.46
CO: $2.02
BTN: $2.00
SB: $3.59
Hero (BB): $2.19
SB posts SB $0.01, Hero posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has 5♥ 6♥
fold, fold, CO calls $0.02, fold, fold, Hero checks
Flop: ($0.05, 2 players) K♥ 7♥ 4♥
Hero bets $0.05, CO raises to $0.10, Hero raises to $0.35, CO raises to $0.60, Hero raises to $1.85, CO raises to $2.00 and is all-in, Hero calls $0.15
Turn: ($4.05, 2 players) 4♦
River: ($4.05, 2 players) 8♦
CO shows K♠ 4♠ (Full House, Fours full of Kings) (PreFlop 55%, Flop 17%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows 5♥ 6♥ (Flush, King High) (PreFlop 45%, Flop 83%, Turn 5%)
CO wins $3.78
É... acho que tá bom já, já deu pra ilustrar o momento pelo qual eu passo. Vamos ver como vou reagir a ele.
Bankroll atual: $90