WSOP Final Table Analysis - Part 1

  • MTT
  • MTT
  • $10000
  • Fullring
(7 Votes) 8986


Braminc brings us the freebie this week as he takes an extremely in depth look at some of the big hands at this years WSOP main event final table


analysis final table freebie wsop

Comments (12)

newest first
  • fitzinator18


    Enjoy Braminc's in depth look at this years WSOP main event final table!

    Please leave suggestions and feedback in the comments section below!
  • Agosfc


    Nice one, thanks.
  • archken


    great job. thanks.
  • Prabhatallin


    Nice analyis in some parts, but some of it seemed just way too nitty to be good. I found the analysis of Salaburu's bustout so ridiculous. You don't like the shove, you do the math, it comes out obviously +EV and you still disagree with shove, even when it's clear that no other alternatives are as good. I am really glad Sylvia did good, he was one of the few who was willing to play optimal no matter how silly it looked.
  • Farmarchist


    Good job braminc! Was fun to watch.
  • braminc


    Thanks for the kind words guys!

    Prabhatallin, I agree Sylvia's Q5 shove is technically +ev, however I think it's worth a discussion of whether or not this play is maxEV in this spot 20bb deep. So it sounds like we dont disagree all that much ;)
  • Prabhatallin


    Well, that's fair enough. I do think you are somewhat overstating the variance of shoving here though.
    In fact, you double him up only about 6 or 7% of the time even with a shove. I think it just looks a lot higher variance, but limping or min-raising will also see you stack off plenty of times too, on a variety of flops. It may be tougher to analyze, but personally I think limping/min-raise has equal or more variance though the fact that we see a flop gives an illusion of control.
  • Prabhatallin


    That's fair enough. Even though it may sound paradoxical, I like shoving because it's just the simplest, and I know its +EV, without making a lot of assumptions like limping or min-raise would require.

    Also, shoving in my opinion has lower variance because you double him up only 7-8% of the time, and instinctively, it seems like that would happen with limping and min-raising too- it's just that because we see a flop, there is an illusion of control but that approach has big variance too.
  • toysmith


  • braminc


    Thx prab. Those are good points!
  • downonluck


    Hello Braminc, I think in the Balsiger 4b-reshove hands for 25 bb u forget 2 important considerations. A) The under the gun guy is still in the hand. This means that Balsiger isn't nessisarily 4bet shoving all his AK in this spot - I think more like 50% of them. Also u dont mention the UTG players range. He probably has a range of AJs+, Aq+, 77+ and the odd hands out of this range. So the UTG player takes out a lot of the A-combinations from Balsigers range - givin fewer of them. I understand that Salaburu is allmost comitted - but really he is in terrible shape her considering that Balsiger has shovn a propensity to play honest - and this is a play honest spot IMO.
  • braminc


    Hi downonluck,

    I think you're considerations here are certainly valid. However, I also think it's a bit much to assume UTG raiser is not raising hands like JTs+ and all pairs (and possibly more). Therefore, I'm not sure how much weight we can really give to Ax card removal. Still it's obviously a non-zero amount and so something to at least consider.

    I also am not convinced that Jake will not shove all his AK's considering his stack size, how active this table is, and how much extra money is in the pot with a raise PLUS a call before the 3bet.

    So in summary, I wouldn't be compelled to change my range/analysis assumptions, but I can admit that it's at least debatable.

    Thanks for the comment :)